ALERT For Widespread Frost Across The Area, And A Hard Freeze In Mountain Valleys, Friday Night Into Saturday Morning ( Another Frost-Freeze Is Likely In Mountain Valleys Saturday Night-Sunday Morning ).
*Smoke From Forest Fires In Kentucky & Along The Cumberland Plateau In Tennessee Will Continue To Impact The Area Until Winds Shift N-NE .
Overnight Into Thursday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Winds SW-W 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from 40s to low 50s in cooler valleys to the upper 50s to mid 60s along exposed slopes-ridges.
Thursday Afternoon
Becoming cloudy with a chance for rain showers. SW winds shifting W to WNW at 10-20 mph, with some higher gusts. Temps varying from low-mid 60s in upper elevations to the upper 60s to lower-mid 70s.
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Rain showers & gusty winds in the evening. Partial clearing into the morning. WNW winds shifting N-NE at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, decreasing during the morning. Temps dropping into the 40s to lower 50s.
Friday Afternoon
Sunny. Seasonally cool. N-NNE winds 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts. Temperatures varying from 40s in the upper elevations to the mid-upper 50s.
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Clear & cold. Widespread frost. Hard freeze in mountain valleys. Localized fog possible over major lakes & rivers. Light winds. Temperatures varying from 17-23 degrees in the colder mountain valleys to upper 20s-lower 30s.
Saturday Afternoon
Sunny. Light WNW-NNW winds generally less than 10 mph. Temps varying from 40s to lower 50s in upper elevations to the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Weather Discussion ( Frost-Freeze )
A cold front will offer another chance for needed rainfall as it pushes over the Appalachians late Thursday & Thursday Night. Fingers crossed that amounts can at least locally over-achieve in a few places; otherwise, a widespread wetting of fallen and falling leaves can be hoped for.
NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast
Forecast models are varied in potential amounts, from less than 0.10″ to locally more than 1.00″ on the high-resolution NAM. The golden rule: “when in drought…doubt.” In other words, odds are on the lower numbers verifying until seen otherwise.
NAM 4 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast
The MEAN of the 51-Member European Ensemble group is from 0.10″ to 0.50″ across the Mountain Empire ( about the same as forecast by the GFS Operational Model below ). The best rain coverage being along and west of the mountain chain, with a notable decrease along-lee of the Blue Ridge.
GFS Model Total Rainfall Forecast
High Pressure builds in during Friday to generate nearly ideal radiational cooling, cold air drainage, and vertical temperature inversion development Friday Night into Saturday Morning beneath clear skies and light winds.
NAM 12 KM Model Mean Sea Level Pressure Forecast – Saturday AM ( Nov 5 )
The center of high pressure will ideally be directly over top of southwestern Virginia into Saturday morning, with similar conditions currently forecast into Sunday morning. This is accompanied by LOW dewpoint air in the 950-850 MB layer.
NAM 12 KM Model Mean Sea Level Pressure Forecast – Sunday AM ( Nov 6 )
The Bottom Line…Frosty COLD nights upcoming, especially in mountain valleys, with a general widespread frost being possible in nearly all locations Saturday morning ( and a HARD Freeze within many mountain valleys of the area ).
A similar set of conditions are expected Sunday morning within mountain valleys, with somewhat milder conditions in thermal belt locations ( i.e., along exposed slopes-ridges ).
Although frost and freezing conditions, with hard freezes, have already occurred in colder mountain valleys, many exposed mid-elevation ridges ( thermal belt locations ) and lower elevation river valleys have not yet recorded freezing temperatures.
Strong Smoke From Forest Fires Burning Along The Cumberland Mountains & Cumberland Plateau, From Southeastern Kentucky Into Tennessee, Will Generate Locally Poor Air Quality. Sensitive Individuals Should Limit Outdoor Exposure As Much As Possible In Locales Impacted By Smoke Filled Air.
The largest fire on Halloween was centered on Pine Mountain in Harlan County, Ky., near the Town of Cumberland. Around 1000 acres had burned since the fire, which was arson set, started on October 26. Mike Harp, from the Pike County, Ky., Forest Fire Command Center, reported to WSAZ-TV that 17 fires had been reported across the Kentucky coalfields during October 30-31.
Please Do NOT Even Think About Burning Outdoors.
Overnight Into Monday Morning
Partly cloudy. Gusty NW winds along higher mountain ridges decreasing into morning. Areas of valley fog. Temps varying from 40s in coolest mountain valleys to mid-upper 50s along exposed ridges and plateaus.
Monday Afternoon
Partly to mostly cloudy. Generally light S-SW winds. Temperatures varying from low-mid 60s in the upper elevations to the low-middle 70s.
Halloween Night Into Tuesday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. S-SW winds increasing to 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet. SSW-SW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures varying from 40s in coolest valleys to mid 50s-low 60s.
Tuesday Afternoon
Partly-mostly sunny. Unseasonably warm. SSW-SW winds 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from mid-upper 60s in upper elevations to the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Areas of strong-thick smoke.
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Mostly clear. Winds SSW-WSW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps varying from the upper 30s to mid 40s in colder mountain valleys to the 50s to around 60 degrees on exposed ridges.
Wednesday Afternoon
Partly sunny ( mainly high clouds ) and unseasonably warm. Winds SW-WSW 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts. Temps varying from 60s to around 70 degrees in upper elevations to the 70s to around 80 degrees at lower-middle elevations ( warmest south into the Great Valley ).
Weather Discussion ( SOS For Now )
As a new month dawns the Same Ole Same Pattern will continue, with unseasonably mild conditions for this time of year expected to dominate for a while longer.
Sugar Maple ( Acer saccharum ) Leaf – October 30, 2016
This mild pattern will allow a good amount of autumn color to linger into November, especially within thermal belt locations in middle elevations and across lower elevations.
It is important to note; however, that signs of change are showing up with potential for a major pattern shift across North America during the next 1-2 weeks heading into mid-November ( later this week into next week will start to see these changes begin to develop ).
GFS Ensemble Arctic Oscillation Forecast
November really marks the beginning of when we must start to pay more attention to global teleconnections, which are themselves a response to forcing features responsible for driving the development of changes.
GFS Ensembles North Atlantic Oscillation Forecast
The Arctic Oscillation ( AO ) has been negative for a good while now as the Polar Vortex is unseasonably ( to record ) weak for this time of year and linked to above average snowfall and rates of snow cover expansion centered on Siberia.
Northern Hemisphere 500 MB Height Anomalies – October 1 to 28, 2016
500 MB height anomalies ( above average ) have dominated the arctic basin during October 2016, with a persistent area of below average 500 MB heights ( in response ) centered from the Pacific Northwest to the Aleutians tip and across the Northern Pacific into Asia.
Northern Hemisphere 850 MB Temp Anomalies – October 1-28, 2016
This type of pattern has driven a mild flow across most of the USA during October, anchored by a -PNA pattern with the low heights across the Northern Pacific Ocean.
GFS Ensembles Pacific-North American Oscillation Forecast
This pattern is about to change, with major changes possible by the second week of November that could be longer-lived in nature as a -EPO unites with a +PNA.
East Pacific Oscillation Forecast
It is important to note that individual models will be in a state of disarray, to some extent, as this process begins and that ensembles should be utilized ( as they really should be always for the medium range pattern MEAN ).
-AO
-NAO
+PNA
-EPO
If this teleconnection combination arises as now shown the unseasonable warmth of Autumn 2016 will END, with this arrangement being favorable for a shift into winter.
Details, of course, to be worked out but clearly we are now in sight of what may be a major shift in the flow pattern across Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Stay tuned.
