060716 Forecast

Mountain Area Forecast ( June 6-8 )

ALERT For Areas Of Dense Fog Through Monday AM

Overnight Into Monday Morning

Chance of hit-miss showers.  Areas of dense fog.  Light winds below 2700 feet.  W-WNW winds 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temps in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

Monday Afternoon

Partly cloudy.  Continued warm and relatively humid.  Chance of a hit-miss shower or thunderstorm.  Light WSW to WNW winds generally less than 10 mph.  Temperatures varying from lower 70s at highest elevations to the lower to middle 80s.

Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning

Chance of an evening showers or thunderstorm.  Then partly-mostly clear.  Areas of dense fog.  Winds SW to W at 5-10 mph along mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds W-NW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures in the 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday Afternoon

Partly cloudy.  Becoming much less humid.  Winds W to NW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from 60s at highest elevations to mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning

Partly cloudy.  Cooler.  WNW-NW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts along upper elevation ridges.  Temperatures varying from upper 40s to the mid-upper 50s.

Mountain valley temperatures could dip into the upper 30s to middle 40s during Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning, coldest within mid-upper elevation valleys.
A wave of summer heat will begin building across the Tennessee Valley into the southern Appalachians by this weekend into early next week.  This may trigger thunderstorm development of the air mass variety initially, then the potential for clusters of storms by next week could bring a heavy-excessive rainfall potential.  Please stay tuned for updates on a changing June weather pattern.

 

Weather Discussion ( June 4-8 )

An array of showers and downpours in thunderstorms were observed during the weekend.

As the pressure gradient began increasing orographic clouds formed along the High Knob Massif, with both wave and pilatus cap clouds becoming visible during late Saturday ( June 4 ).  This set the stage for heavy rain into the overnight and Sunday.
High Knob Massif Webcam
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Some amazing and strikingly beautiful cloud formations were observed during Sunday afternoon-early evening.
High Knob Massif Webcam
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise

A general 1.00″ to 2.00″+ of rainfall into Sunday boosted June rain tallies into the 3.00″ to 5.00″+ category across much of the High Knob Massif area, with roaring water observed on steep creeks draining the massif.

Big Stony Creek Stream Gage
Big Stony Creek Stream Gage – May 31 Through June 1-5, 2016

While a hit-miss shower or thunderstorm will remain possible through Monday, a much drier air mass and refreshing change will be felt during Tuesday and Wednesday when seasonally cool temperatures will overspread the mountain region.

A Small Virginia Land Snail Species - June 2016
A Small Virginia Land Snail Species – June 2016
Temperatures in cooler mountain valleys will drop into the 40s during mid-week, with even some upper 30s to lower 40s being possible in colder valleys of mid-upper elevations.
Appalachian Barren Strawberry ( Geum fragarioides )
Appalachian Barren Strawberry ( Geum fragarioides ) – June 2016

The focus by the end of this week into this upcoming weekend will shift to building heat.  The first true heat of the Summer 2016 season.  Given May-early June wetness, the potential for thunderstorm formation will have to be respected, with cloud formation and such activity dictating how hot temperatures will get in many places ( the trend favoring heat that breaks by storms and the potential of a heavy to potentially excessive rainfall setting next week ).