Mountain Area Forecast ( June 28-30 )
Overnight Into Tuesday Morning
Hazy & humid with light rain & drizzle. Areas of dense fog, most widespread in locations along-north of the High Knob Massif & Tennessee Valley Divide. Winds NW-NE at 5 to 15 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures widespread in the 60s.
Partly sunny. Small chance of a localized shower. Skies becoming blue with decreasing haze late. NW winds 5 to 15 mph. Temps varying from low-mid 70s to lower-middle 80s ( coolest at highest elevations ).
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Mostly clear. NNW-NNE winds decreasing to generally less than 10 mph by morning on mountain ridges. Temps from lower 50s to lower 60s.
Partly to mostly sunny. Beautiful blue skies with northerly winds 5-10 mph. Temperatures varying from 60s at highest elevations to the middle 70s to around 80 degrees.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Mostly clear. Chilly in mountain valleys. Light N-NE winds. Temperatures varying from upper 40s to mid 50s in cooler mountain valleys to the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Partly cloudy. Pleasant. Small chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Northerly winds generally around 10 mph or less. Temperatures varying from 60s to lower 70s at highest elevations to the upper 70s to lower 80s.
A stormy weather pattern is likely to develop by the Independence Day Holiday Weekend into next week as heat & humidity increases to establish a temperature-moisture gradient across the region. A heavy to locally excessive rainfall potential is being monitored for portions of the Mountain Region. Stay tuned for later updates.
Weather Discussion ( June 27-30 )
Wednesday Evening ( June 29 ) Update
A gorgeous late June air mass graced the Cumberlands during June 29, with 50s to lower 60s in the morning giving way to pleasant 70s to around 80 degree afternoon temps.
Latest model runs are showing a better Holiday weekend for the Mountain Empire than in previous days, but a chance of hit-miss showers and thunderstorms will exist.
The operational European Model has come more in line with the MEAN of it’s 51-Member Ensemble group, with a shift to the north with the heaviest rainfall axis into next week.
While this might have been predicted from feedback of drought developing across the Tennessee Valley and parts of the southern Appalachians, it remains in flux and the Cumberland Mountains remain in play for the potential of heavy to excessive rainfall amounts next week ( along with locations to the north into the Ohio Valley & West Virginia ).
This recent trend does not bode well for flood ravaged West Virginia, with many praying for this current drying period to continue through the extended.
The Updated Bottom Line…While a chance for showers and thunderstorms will return from Thursday-Friday through the Holiday Weekend, recent model runs are not looking as wet as in previous days.
A very stormy period continues to be likely in the extended 5-10+ day interval, with a heavy to excessive rainfall potential looming for portions of the Ohio Valley and Appalachians. Again, at this time, the precise corridor of main impact can not yet be determined despite a general shift northward by MEAN model guidance away from the Tennessee Valley ( the Cumberland Mountains remain in a potential target zone of training storm clusters ).
Stay tuned for later updates as models continue to work to figure out the pattern into the first week of July 2016.