Mountain Area Forecast ( July 7-9 )
ALERT For Heavy To Excessive Rainfall At Times From This Week Into Next Week Amid A Persistence Pattern
Severe Thunderstorm Watch In Effect Until 9:00 PM
The Storm Prediction Center Has Issued A Enhanced Risk For Severe Thunderstorms Through Friday PM Into Friday Night – Main Severe Risk Is Wind Damage
A heavy to excessive rainfall potential with the possibility of dangerous flash flooding will continue to be a weather concern, especially from the Cumberland Mountains north and west, in coming days as waves of showers & downpours in thunderstorms periodically move across the region.
While many dry hours will occur, with a break from active storm clusters for at least part of this weekend, the storm pattern renews into next week. Accumulative rain amounts over time will saturate the ground and make later activity more likely to cause water problems ( especially with any training or back-building of convection which occurs ).
These statements are based on recognition of a repetitive synoptic-scale weather pattern and recent ( antecedent ) conditions producing numerous flash floods in the region.
Remainder Of Thursday Afternoon
Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Chance of thunder. Areas of dense fog across upper elevations. Winds W-NW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying in the 60s to lower-middle 70s ( warmer to the south into the Great Valley and Tri-Cities ).
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
A chance of showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Winds SW-W 5-15 mph on mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 ft. WSW-WNW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on upper elevation mountain ridges. Humid with temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
A chance of showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail. Winds SW to W 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Humid & hazy with temperatures varying from 70s to lower-middle 80s ( warmer south toward the TRI ).
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
A chance of showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail. SW to W winds 5-15 mph on mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet. WSW-WNW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges. Humid with temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s.
Weather Discussion ( July 5-9 )
Early Friday Afternoon
A dangerous severe thunderstorm-heavy rainfall setting is taking shape for the Mountain Area this afternoon into this evening ( Friday July 8 ).
Wind damage and power outages will be a significant threat along with any storms that train or back-build to generate very heavy rainfall ( even weak looking showers on Doppler have had downpours today as the air mass is water loaded ).
Warnings will be likely for some of this activity, so please remain alert to changing weather conditions.