Tropical Downpours & Booming Thunderstorms Will Be Possible At Times From Sunday Through Much Of This Upcoming Week – Some Storms Could Be Strong To Locally Severe In Addition To Dropping Heavy Rain The Could Cause Localized Water Problems
A high moisture content air mass will interact with a stalling boundary to increase coverage of showers & thunderstorms across the Cumberland Mountains through much of this week, especially from Monday ( July 25 ) through the final days of July as a steamy air mass holds across the region ( lower temps but high humidity ).
During this time of year wind shear tends to take a back seat as a severe weather generator, with CAPE ( instability ) and water loading of down-drafts becoming main factors along with slower storm motion that tends to prolong heavy rain, lightning, and any hail over a given location as many pulse up-down and “rain themselves out” over localized places.
Overnight Into Sunday Morning
Partly-mostly clear. Areas of dense fog ( especially in the northern portions of Wise County and western Dickenson where torrential rain fell Saturday ). Light winds. Mild. Temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s.
Sunday Afternoon
Partly cloudy & continued hot. A chance of hit-miss showers and downpours in booming thunderstorms. Humid. Light winds outside of any storms. Temperatures varying from middle-upper 70s at highest elevations to the middle 80s to around 90 degrees ( hotter toward Jonesville and the Tri-Cities ).
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
A chance of showers and downpours in thunderstorms, especially during the evening. Hazy & humid with areas of dense fog. Light winds. Temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.
Monday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and downpours in booming thunderstorms. Humid. Light and variable winds 10 mph or less outside any thunderstorms. Temps varying from low-mid 70s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 80s ( hotter south toward the Great Valley ).
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
A chance of showers and downpours in thunderstorms, especially during the evening. Hazy & humid with areas of dense fog. Light winds, except W-NW at 5-10 mph on upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps in the 60s to lower 70s.
Tuesday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and downpours in booming thunderstorms. Humid. Light and variable winds 10 mph or less outside any thunderstorms. Temps varying from low-mid 70s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 80s ( hotter south toward the Great Valley ).
Weather Discussion ( July 23-26+ )
Majestic cumulonimbus and towering cumulus illuminated by sunset on July 23 ( below ).
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Booming thunderstorms broke the heat in the Clintwood to Pound corridor on Saturday, with torrential rains falling on Red Onion Mountain into Pound and upper portions of the North Fork of Pound Lake watershed ( 1.00″ to 2.00″+ ).
Dual-Pol Doppler Rainfall Estimate ( 1.50-2.00″+ In Red )
The rainfall legend below also corresponds to this zoomed terrain map ( above ).
Dual-Pol Doppler With Rainfall Legend
The official temperature reached 90.6 degrees in Clintwood, prior to these thunderstorms, marking the first 90 degree reading of 2016 and the first observed since July 2012.
Lonesome Pine Airport In Wise
Temperatures peaked in the mid-upper 80s within middle elevations of central-southern Wise and Dickenson counties.
Nora 4 SSE – NWS Station In Middle Elevations – Elevation 2650 feet
*Layton Gardner reports that the official July 1-23 MAX has been 87 degrees at the University Of Virginia’s College At Wise ( the average Daily MAX during this period being 82.6 degrees ).
Official National Weather Service Data – UVA-Wise – Layton Gardner Observer
More hit-miss showers & booming thunderstorms will be possible Sunday as heat builds again. A better coverage of showers and tropical downpours in storms is expected by Monday-Tuesday through the final days of July.
Any given place could be hit or missed on multiple days, making prediction of where storms and heavy rains strike very difficult until activity actually develops on Doppler radar.
Coral Mushrooms After BOOMing Thunderstorms On July 23, 2016
A concern for too much rain, amid tropical downpours in a high water content air mass, has returned ( as seen between Clintwood-Pound on Saturday PM of July 23 ) and will remain a threat through the final days of July.
Reflections In Water Drops After BOOMing Thunderstorms On July 23, 2016
Models will continue to struggle with placement and amounts of the heavy downpours, but the signal is again clear for heavy to potentially excessive rainfall amounts.
NAM 4 KM Model Rainfall Forecast To 8 AM Tuesday – July 26, 2016
The GFS Model has been very aggressive with heavy-excessive rainfall amounts during the upcoming 5-10+ day period.
GFS Model Rainfall Forecast Next 10-Days
The latest European Model is showing 2.00″ to 5.00″ basin average totals being possible during the next 10 days ( implying that local amounts could be much higher ).
GFS Model Rainfall Forecast Next 10-Days – Local Region
Rainfall amounts will most certainly vary greatly over short distances ( as seen July 23 ), which makes it hard for any model to resolve ( especially over complex terrain ).
The Bottom Line…Heat continues Sunday but with a trend of increasing humidity and increasing chances for more booming storms and tropical downpours at times through this coming week and the final days of July 2016. A concern for too much rain in some places will be a threat, as has been the pattern along and north of the Cumberland Mountains this summer.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for any watches, warnings & advisories which may be issued through coming days.
