Hit-Miss Tropical Downpours & Thunderstorms Will Continue This Week Into This Weekend With A Threat For Localized Water Problems Upon Saturated Ground
A jungle-like high water content air mass will continue to grip the mountain region through coming days. Heavy to locally excessive rainfall will be possible amid a hit or miss pattern Thursday, with more widespread activity possible Friday into Saturday as a front drops into the mountain region.
Remain alert if heavy rain develops over or upstream of your location. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible warnings or advisories.
Overnight Into Thursday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Hazy & humid. Areas of dense fog. SE to SSW winds 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps in the 60s.
Thursday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy. Humid. Chance of hit-miss tropical downpours and thunderstorms. Winds SE-S at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus. Temperatures varying from low-middle 70s at highest elevations to the low-mid 80s.
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers & thunderstorms. Humid & hazy. Areas of dense fog. Winds SSE-SSW 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Friday Afternoon
Showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Torrential local rain. Some storms may be strong to locally severe. Humid. Light winds ( outside storms ). Temperatures varying from low-mid 70s in upper elevations to the low-mid 80s.
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Mostly cloudy. Humid & hazy. Areas of dense fog. Small chance of a shower. Winds SW-NW at generally less than 10 mph. Temps in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Saturday Afternoon
Showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Torrential local rain. Some storms may be strong to locally severe. Humid. Light winds ( outside storms ). Temperatures varying from upper 60s-lower 70s at highest elevations to the lower 80s.
Weather Discussion ( August 2-6 )
Friday Night Update
A steamy ( tropically muggy ) air mass continues to grip the mountain area with locally heavy rains during the past 24-hours, with a notable bias ( to no surprise ) along the Scott County side of the High Knob Massif via E-SE air flow and upsloping into the high country.
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Nice fish-tail lenticular clouds developed in the easterly flow across the massif ( above ) during Thursday afternoon-evening.
Scott County VA Automated Rain Gauges
Around 1.00″ of rain fell over the head of Big Cherry Lake basin, on the Wise County side of the massif, but heaviest widespread rains of 1.00″ to 2.00″+ fell in northern Scott County with rising air toward the high country from the NE-SE-S.
*The Camp Rock gauge is not working properly and reads much too low.
Measurable August rain has fallen daily in Clintwood, with 1.19″ measured so far during August 1-5 ( as of the afternoon ).
NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast Next 84-Hours
Models have been slowing the next approaching front, such that drier and less humid air is likely to never make it into the area to any significant extent. The NAM Model now has the lowest dewpoints at the High Knob Massif summit level only dropping to around 61 degrees ( previous days had them falling well down into the 50s ).
The Bottom Line…A continuation of hit-miss showers and tropical downpours, with thunderstorms possible, through the weekend into early next week.
A developing low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will still bear close watching for a possible influence on the southern Appalachians during the extended 5-10+ day period ( i.e., the mid to later portion of next week ).
Tropical Skies Above Little Stone Mountain Gap – Looking Toward Norton
Every day some place, or places, takes a torrential rainfall hit with St. Paul, Dante, and Castlewood being the targets during August 2. Fast forward a day to August 3 and it was the City of Norton, Big Cherry Lake, and other local places in Wise, Scott, Lee, Dickenson, and Russell counties.
Downpours on August 3 dropped 0.50-1.00″ of rain in 30 minutes or less, characteristic of tropical downpours ( with little to no lightning ).
Previously, on August 1, a gully washing downpour hit Wise with ponding of water along roads and increased run-off. In jungle-like fashion it left steamy looking fog and a bounty of haze in its wake.
Nora 4 SSE on Long Ridge – Weather Observations during July 27-August 2
A wet feedback is influencing weather conditions across Wise and Dickenson counties, in particular, with another 0.69″ added onto the above observations for Nora 4 SSE on Long Ridge into morning hours of August 3 ( making 4.90″ of rain during the past 7 days ).
Ditto for the City of Norton, which I will update later Thursday.
MAX temperatures have not climbed above the low-mid 70s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif since July 27, amid this wet pattern featuring abundant clouds and hit-miss tropical downpours.
NAM 4 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast To 8 AM Saturday – August 6, 2016
The pattern does not change into this weekend, with even an increasing chance for tropical downpours and storms as the next frontal boundary drops into the mountain region.
By next week an area of low pressure along the northern Gulf is being forecast by the European Model to develop, with abundant moisture that will bear close watching across locations from the Deep South into the southern Appalachians ( stay tuned for updates on that ).
