Mountain Area Forecast ( August 16-19 )
Showers & Tropical Downpours In Thunderstorms Will Occur At Times Into This Weekend-Early Next Week, With Heavy To Locally Excessive Rainfall Possible
Any thunderstorm at this time of year can turn locally strong to severe through coming days along and in advance of cold fronts. Heavy to locally excessive rainfall will be possible with a nearly stationary boundary across the mountain area Thursday-Friday, and again late in this weekend along a stronger cold front.
Much less humid air is expected to arrive behind the second cold front by August 22-25 ( with much cooler nights ).
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
A chance of hit-miss showers & thunderstorms; otherwise, partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Winds SW-W 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s.
Partly-mostly cloudy. A good chance for showers & tropical downpours in thunderstorms. Humid. SW-WNW winds 5-10 mph. Temps varying from lower 70s at highest elevations to the lower 80s ( warmer south toward the Great Valley ).
**Updated Forecast Below**
Overnight Into Thursday Morning
A chance for showers. SW-WSW winds 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus. Humid & hazy. Areas of fog. Temps widespread in the 60s to near 70 degrees.
A good chance for showers & tropical downpours in thunderstorms. WSW-WNW winds 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus. Temperatures varying from 60s to lower 70s at highest elevations to the upper 70s to lower 80s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
A chance of showers & thunderstorms. Areas of dense fog. Light winds. Temperatures widespread in the 60s.
A good chance for showers & tropical downpours in thunderstorms. Light winds. Temperatures varying from 60s to lower 70s in upper elevations to the middle 70s to lower 80s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Weather Discussion ( Some Changes )
It is clear now that the boundary will stall across the mountain area, with a continued any place and any time type of pattern featuring intervals of showers & tropical downpours in thunderstorms ( as somewhat drier air does work in north toward the Ohio River ).
For the second day out of three another line of thunderstorms moved across the Cumberland Mountains with heavy rain and booming thunder. With locally more than 2.00″ of rain falling during Monday-Wednesday ( August 15-17 ), this increases the concern for too much rain in places through coming days.
*More than a foot and one-half ( 18.00″ ) of rain has fallen in the City of Norton this summer, with locally higher amounts in the area. This also increases the potential for more rapid run-off if heavy rainfall develops or becomes prolonged in nature.
Heavy rain will be likely along a stronger cold front later Sunday into early Monday, beyond the forecast period above, such that the potential exists for hefty amounts ( at least in places ).
The Bottom Line…The mountain area will have to wait a while longer to enjoy much drier air, with a stalling boundary set to keep showers & tropical downpours in thunderstorms in the forecast into this weekend when a second, stronger cold front will finally push the high dewpoint ( muggy ) air southward early next week.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible warnings and/or advisories that may be needed through coming days.