110216 Forecast

Mountain Area Forecast ( Oct 31-Nov 2 )

Strong Smoke From Forest Fires Burning Along The Cumberland Mountains & Cumberland Plateau, From Southeastern Kentucky Into Tennessee, Will Generate Locally Poor Air Quality.  Sensitive Individuals Should Limit Outdoor Exposure As Much As Possible In Locales Impacted By Smoke Filled Air.

The largest fire on Halloween was centered on Pine Mountain in Harlan County, Ky., near the Town of Cumberland.  Around 1000 acres had burned since the fire, which was arson set, started on October 26.  Mike Harp, from the Pike County, Ky., Forest Fire Command Center, reported to WSAZ-TV that 17 fires had been reported across the Kentucky coalfields during October 30-31.

Please Do NOT Even Think About Burning Outdoors.

Overnight Into Monday Morning

Partly cloudy.  Gusty NW winds along higher mountain ridges decreasing into morning.  Areas of valley fog.  Temps varying from 40s in coolest mountain valleys to mid-upper 50s along exposed ridges and plateaus.

Monday Afternoon

Partly to mostly cloudy.  Generally light S-SW winds.  Temperatures varying from low-mid 60s in the upper elevations to the low-middle 70s.

Halloween Night Into Tuesday Morning

Partly-mostly cloudy.  S-SW winds increasing to 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  SSW-SW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures varying from 40s in coolest valleys to mid 50s-low 60s.

Tuesday Afternoon

Partly-mostly sunny.  Unseasonably warm.  SSW-SW winds 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from mid-upper 60s in upper elevations to the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.  Areas of strong-thick smoke.

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning

Mostly clear.  Winds SSW-WSW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps varying from the upper 30s to mid 40s in colder mountain valleys to the 50s to around 60 degrees on exposed ridges.

Wednesday Afternoon

Partly sunny ( mainly high clouds ) and unseasonably warm.  Winds SW-WSW 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temps varying from 60s to around 70 degrees in upper elevations to the 70s to around 80 degrees at lower-middle elevations   ( warmest south into the Great Valley ).


Weather Discussion ( SOS For Now )

As a new month dawns the Same Ole Same Pattern will continue, with unseasonably mild conditions for this time of year expected to dominate for a while longer.

Sugar Maple ( Acer saccharum )
Sugar Maple ( Acer saccharum ) Leaf – October 30, 2016
This mild pattern will allow a good amount of autumn color to linger into November, especially within thermal belt locations in middle elevations and across lower elevations.

It is important to note; however, that signs of change are showing up with potential for a major pattern shift across North America during the next 1-2 weeks heading into mid-November ( later this week into next week will start to see these changes begin to develop ).

GFS Ensemble Arctic Oscillation Forecast
GFS Ensemble Arctic Oscillation Forecast

November really marks the beginning of when we must start to pay more attention to global teleconnections, which are themselves a response to forcing features responsible for driving the development of changes.

GFS Ensembles North Atlantic Oscillation Forecast
GFS Ensembles North Atlantic Oscillation Forecast
The Arctic Oscillation ( AO ) has been negative for a good while now as the Polar Vortex is unseasonably ( to record ) weak for this time of year and linked to above average snowfall and rates of snow cover expansion centered on Siberia.
500 MB Height Anomalies
Northern Hemisphere 500 MB Height Anomalies – October 1 to 28, 2016

500 MB height anomalies ( above average ) have dominated the arctic basin during October 2016, with a persistent area of below average 500 MB heights ( in response ) centered from the Pacific Northwest to the Aleutians tip and across the Northern Pacific into Asia.

Northern Hemisphere 850 MB Temp Anomalies
Northern Hemisphere 850 MB Temp Anomalies – October 1-28, 2016

This type of pattern has driven a mild flow across most of the USA during October, anchored by a -PNA pattern with the low heights across the Northern Pacific Ocean.

GFS Ensembles Pacific-North American Oscillation
GFS Ensembles Pacific-North American Oscillation Forecast

This pattern is about to change, with major changes possible by the second week of November that could be longer-lived in nature as a -EPO unites with a +PNA.

East Pacific Oscillation Forecast
East Pacific Oscillation Forecast

It is important to note that individual models will be in a state of disarray, to some extent, as this process begins and that ensembles should be utilized ( as they really should be always for the medium range pattern MEAN ).


If this teleconnection combination arises as now shown the unseasonable warmth of Autumn 2016 will END, with this arrangement being favorable for a shift into winter.

Details, of course, to be worked out but clearly we are now in sight of what may be a major shift in the flow pattern across Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.  Stay tuned.