ALERT For Widespread Frost Into Saturday & Sunday Mornings, With A Hard Freeze In Mountain Valleys
***A NO BURN BAN Is Now In Effect
Overnight Into Saturday Morning
Clear & cold. Widespread frost developing. Light winds on mid to upper elevation mountain ridges. Hard freeze in the colder mountain valleys. Localized fog possible over major lakes & rivers. Temperatures varying from low-mid 20s in colder valleys to the low-mid 30s ( mildest mid-elevation thermal belt slopes-ridges and near major lakes-rivers ).
Saturday Afternoon
Mostly sunny ( deep blue skies ). Light northerly winds. Temperatures varying from upper 40s to lower 50s in upper elevations to the lower-middle 60s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Mostly clear. Frosty cold in valleys. Hard freeze in the valleys. Light winds. Temperatures varying from 17-23 degrees in colder valleys of upper elevations to the low-middle 30s ( warmest mid-elevation thermal belts ).
Sunday Afternoon
Partly-mostly sunny ( some high clouds ). Light NE-ENE winds. Temperatures varying from low-mid 50s in upper elevations to the 60s across lower-middle elevations.
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
Mostly clear. Large vertical temperature difference between frosty valleys & milder ridges. SE-S winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation ridges. Temperatures varying from 20s to low 30s in mountain valleys to the mid-upper 40s on exposed ridges.
Monday Afternoon
Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke-haze. Winds SSE-SE at 5-10 mph with some higher gusts. Temperatures varying from 50s to around 60 in upper elevations to the mid-upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Rain showers and colder air, with increasing RH on developing and gusty NW-NNW upslope flow is expected for Wednesday ( the drop of cloud bases will impact locations above 3000 feet ). Stay tuned for updates on this fire conditions impact event.
Weather Discussion ( Dry Air )
Widespread frost was observed on the ground and roof-tops from Clintwood to Norton on Saturday morning ( Nov 5 ) as low temperatures dipped into the 20s. It was as my grand-daddy used to say, “like a snow.”
Morning mins dropped into the 20s in mountain valleys, with 29 degrees officially being recorded in Clintwood. Higher mountain valleys fell into the low-mid 20s.
High Knob MesoNET – November 5, 2016
Around 10 hours, or locally more, were recorded with temps at or below freezing in high valleys. By contrast, a freeze in thermal belt locations ( exposed slopes-ridges ) was escaped with local readings as “mild” as the upper 30s.
Late PM Sun & Smoke From High Knob Meadow – November 5, 2016
Saturday morning featured very smoky conditions around Pound as NNE-NE flow was just enough to carry smoke into town from a fire burning on Pine Mountain. Meanwhile, it was clear & mainly smoke-free in Clintwood, Wise-Norton.
Lonesome Pine Airport In Wise
Only a slight wind shift from NNE-NE to NW-N allowed smoke from Pine Mountain to literally surge into the Norton-Wise & High Knob Massif area during Saturday afternoon. At least temporarily, with a subsequent wind shift back to NNE-NE again clearing much of the area.
*As winds shift more NE-ENE and eventually SE-SSE even the Pound area will clear as smoke will be pushed back toward Kentucky by later Sunday into Sunday Night.
Note that due to lower dewpoint air at higher elevations the fire conditions do not ease as much along ridges as they do in hollows and lower coves-valleys where nocturnal conditions feature rises in relative humidity as dewpoints-temperatures converge. This setting changes during the day as lower elevation RH drops.
Heavy frost is again, as expected, forming in valleys during this overnight-predawn of Sunday with another “snow” like covering being widespread into morning. Thermal belt sites will yet again miss another freeze.
*Thermal belt sites, as well as any other places that have not yet had a freeze, can now count the days before a freeze is observed as a major pattern change begins to occur across the Northern Hemisphere heading into mid-November.
Previous Discussion
Following enough rain to only dampen the forest, with totals varying from 0.03″ in Clintwood to a general 0.10″- 0.20″ within the High Knob Massif area, dry air is again reinforcing its grip on the mountain landscape.
Very dry air within the 900-800 MB layer will set the stage for cold temperatures both Saturday & Sunday mornings, especially within higher mountain valleys where I expect the first 10s to lower 20s of the season to be recorded. Mid-upper 20s being the coldest so far reported this autumn in the higher valleys.
October 2016 – The 850 MB Temperature Anomalies
The month of October 2016 ended 3.8 degrees above the 1981-2010 averages in both Clintwood and Wise, with MEAN temperatures of 56.8 degrees in Clintwood and 58.8 degrees on the campus of University Of Virginia’s College At Wise.
*There have been 4 October’s in Wise above 60.0 degrees with the warmest on record featuring a 61.5 degree MEAN temperature during October 1984 ( the great Arctic Outbreak in January 1985 followed to generate some of the coldest temps of all-time ).
October 1950 – The 850 MB Temperature Anomalies
Certainly one of the top analogs to this coast-to-coast warmth of October 2016 occurred in October 1950.
Closely compare October 1950 ( above ) with October 2016 and it is a rather amazing match. In the analog world it is about as close as one can get ( an analog typically referring to a previous set of weather conditions similar to what is being currently observed ).
A bad winter followed during 1950-51, with the GREAT Thanksgiving Snowstorm in November 1950 being one of the most amazing ( epic ) Appalachian storms of all-time.
The November 15, 1950 to February 15, 1951 period:
November 15, 1950 to February 15, 1951 – The 850 MB Temp Anomalies
Having a warm October and first half of November is not new; although, one would never know that if only listening to TWC ( The Warming Channel ). It is great to highlight the current state, but one must ( as Paul Harvey famously said ) also complete ( tell the rest of ) the story!
Rutgers University Snow Cover Extent
While the USA did have a mild October 2016, the expanse of total snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere came in at the third highest on record out of 49 years ( not that far behind the record set in October 1976 ). This was driven by rapid and extensive snow cover development across a good portion of Asia, centered upon Siberia, with an anomalous and weak Polar Vortex that has been undergoing what is a unprecedented ( for this time of year ) split.
European Model 10 MB Analysis For November 1, 2016
The split in the Polar Vortex in the stratosphere has occurred from the top ( above ) to the bottom ( below ).
European Model 150 MB Analysis For November 1, 2016
Arctic sea ice extent, by contrast to snow cover, is at a record low level for early November ( below ).
Arctic Sea Ice Extent At Record Low Level For Early November 2016
The last time I checked 1 + 1 = 2, so it is no surprise to me that snow cover expanse has been rapid and extensive around the Arctic Basin since open water = more moisture for evaporation and input into the atmosphere for snow.
The coldest air has developed on the opposite side of the North Pole, and has spread across much of Asia into portions of Europe ( below ).
October 27-November 2 Temperature Anomalies For Northern Hemisphere
Remember that while the Arctic Basin is warm relative to long-term averages, it is still plenty cold enough for snow production.
So while warmth has ruled the USA so far this autumn, many indications continue to suggest that a major pattern change will come to this side of the pole as well. Dryness will at least persist until this pattern change occurs into mid-late November ( with current odds favoring a wintry Thanksgiving to Christmas period ).
