111416 Forecast

Mountain Area Forecast ( Nov 12-14 )

Overnight Into Saturday Morning

Partly-mostly cloudy.  Colder.  Winds N-NE 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures falling into the upper 20s to mid 30s, coldest at highest elevations & in colder valleys.

Saturday Afternoon

Sunny.  Crisp.  Light winds mostly less than 10 mph.  Temperatures varying from upper 30s to lower 40s in upper elevations to the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

Clear & cold.  Hard freeze.  Light winds.  Temperatures varying from 10s in colder mountain valleys to the mid-upper 20s, except 30s on some exposed upper elevation mountain ridges.

Sunday Afternoon

Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds late.  Light and variable winds.  Temperatures varying from mid-upper 40s in upper elevations to the middle 50s to around 60 degrees.

Sunday Night Into Monday Morning

Partly-mostly cloudy.  Light winds.  Temperatures varying from 20s to lower 30s in coldest valleys to the 40s along exposed mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.

Monday Afternoon

Mostly cloudy.  Small chance of sprinkles or light showers.  Light northerly winds.  Temperatures varying from 40s at upper elevations to the 50s at low-middle elevations in and north of the High Knob Massif & Tennessee Valley Divide.

A changing flow pattern across North America is underway with increasing shots of chilly air, interrupted by milder periods.  The potential for the coldest air of the season, with possible wintry precipitation, is being monitored for the 7-10 day forecast period leading up to Thanksgiving week ( Nov 19-22 interval ).  Please check back for later updates on this changing pattern.


Weather Discussion ( Seasonable Cold )

Slowly but surely the weather pattern is starting to change, as you will be able to feel this weekend as cold air grips the mountain landscape ( near to a little below average for this time of  year, and certainly different from previous weeks ).

GFS Model MIN Temperature Forecast
GFS Model MIN Temperature Forecast By Sunday Morning ( November 13 )
A widespread freeze is expected Saturday Night into Sunday Morning with 10s and 20s across the area ( 10s in colder valleys where some 10s have already been observed in high valleys ).
Note that due to dry ground and very low dewpoint air in the 900 to 800 MB layer that MIN temperatures along the mountains will tend to be colder than MOS & models are predicting ( as has been observed already this month ).
NAM 12 KM Model Total Precipitation Forecast Next 84-Hours
NAM 12 KM Model Total Precipitation Forecast Next 84-Hours

By early next week a system developing mostly east of the Appalachians will bring a chance for some precipitation, with the NAM Model group most aggressive in spreading some across the mountain chain.

The 51-Member European Ensembles also forecast some light amounts, but clearly place the emphasis of significant rainfall along the coastal Carolina’s ( a little more inland than predicted by the GFS Model below ).

GFS Model Total Precipitation Forecast Next 84-Hours
GFS Model Total Precipitation Forecast Next 84-Hours

Although a drought easing rainfall is not yet in the forecast, the good news is that with a changing pattern opportunities for precipitation will be increasing during the remainder of November into the holiday period.