Mountain Area Forecast ( Nov 27-29 )
***A NO BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT
ALERT For High ( ROARING ) SSE-SSW Winds Monday Into Monday Night. Wind Gusts Of 40-60+ MPH Will Become Likely By Late Monday. Caution Is Advised.
Tune Into NOAA Weather Radio And Your Favorite Media Sources For National Weather Service Watches, Warnings & Advisories.
Another period of STRONG winds will become likely Tuesday Night Into Wednesday. Check back for updates.
Rainfall amounts by late Wednesday Into Thursday ( November 30 to December 1 ) could be enough to cause strong rises along creeks and streams, with enhancement expected to be greatest in favored orographic forcing zones along the Cumberland Mountains and the adjoining Cumberland Plateau into Tennessee ( esp. Wednesday ).
Overnight Into Sunday Morning
Mostly clear. Cold. Winds becoming light & variable, except along upper elevation mountain ridges where WSW-WNW winds of 5-10 mph will occur. Temperatures varying from the 10s to mid 20s ( 10-15 in colder valleys versus steady or slowing rising temperatures along highest ridges into the 30s overnight into morning ).
Partly-mostly sunny ( high clouds ). Milder. Light SSW-SW winds increasing to 5-15 mph by sunset. Temps from the mid-upper 40s to the mid-upper 50s ( coolest at highest elevations ).
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
Increasing mid-high altitude clouds. S winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges below 2700 feet. Winds SSW-SW 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from the upper 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys to the mid-upper 40s along exposed mountain ridges ( wind chills in the 20s and 30s on ridges ).
Mostly cloudy. Becoming windy. SSE winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet. Winds SSE to S 25-35 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Winds could gust over 50 mph at high elevations and with any mountain waves that develop. Temperatures varying from 40s in the upper elevations to the 50s at lower-middle elevations.
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
Cloud bases lowering-thickening with rain developing. Periods of locally heavy rain possible. Windy. Winds SSE-S at 20-40 mph, with higher gusts, shifting SW by morning. Temperatures steady or slowing rising in the 50s. Winds could gust over 50 mph at high elevations and with any mountain waves that may develop ( esp. Monday Night ).
A second wave of heavier rainfall is currently expected to impact the mountain area on Wednesday. Rainfall amounts may need to be closely followed, with strong rises possible along streams. Stay tuned for later updates on this heavy rainfall potential.
Weather Discussion ( Significant Rain )
Sunday Evening Update
While there remains some run-to-run differences on rainfall amounts, models have settled on a significant rainfall event during the Tuesday-Wednesday period.
Orographic forcing will enhance amounts in favored places, such as the High Knob Massif where forecast trajectories are close to the long-term MEAN climatological air flow within the 925-850 MB zone ( esp. into Wednesday ).
*Although some models are splitting rainfall nearly evenly between the two waves, the second wave is likely to be most productive given that the atmosphere will ( by then ) be wet, saturated in nature and more unstable than initially.