ALERT For Strong Wind Gusts & Heavy Rainfall Developing Into The Overnight-Wednesday AM
Strong rises along creeks & streams will be possible along the Cumberland Mountains & Cumberland Plateaus into Wednesday with developing showers & embedded thunderstorms. Locally strong to severe wind gusts, with downward transfer of high momentum air aloft, will also be possible.
Remain alert for ponding of water along roadways and in low-lying, poor drainage areas. Some drains could be stopped up by leaves, with no major rains observed since mid-September.
Tune Into NOAA Weather Radio And Your Favorite Media Sources For National Weather Service Watches, Warnings & Advisories.
Tuesday Evening Into Wednesday Morning
Increasing clouds with showers and thunderstorms developing into the overnight-morning. Locally heavy rainfall. SSE-SSW winds increasing to 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet. SSW-SW winds 20-30 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Evening temperature dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s in sheltered valleys, then rising in the overnight into the 50s. Otherwise, temps in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
Wednesday Afternoon
Rain & showers diminishing during mid-late afternoon. Windy. SW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts. Temps in the 50s to lower 60s, dropping during late afternoon into the 40s to lower 50s.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Cloudy and chilly. Gusty. A chance of drizzle or high elevation sleet pellets and flurries. WSW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from upper 20s to the mid-upper 30s. Wind chills in the 10s and 20s ( coldest at the highest elevations ).
Thursday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. Seasonally cold. Winds WSW-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from low-mid 30s in upper elevations to the low-middle 40s. Wind chills in the 20s and 30s ( coldest at highest elevations ).
Weather Discussion ( Heavy Rainfall )
An outbreak of strong-severe thunderstorms over the Dixie States will spread heavy rain northeast to the Appalachians overnight into Wednesday morning. Although storms will tend to weaken, locally strong-severe wind gusts could remain possible in stronger activity.
HRRR Model Total Rainfall Forecast Up To 9:00 AM Wednesday
The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms ( main threat being wind damage ).
Storm Prediction Center Outlook For Wednesday
Otherwise, an increasing pressure gradient will strengthen winds into the overnight-Wednesday and help orographic forcing for rainfall.
HRRR Model Temperature Forecast At 9:00 AM Wednesday – November 30
Winds will continue to be gusty into Wednesday Night and Thursday Morning as the mild air gives way to much colder air to the west behind this wave of rain and storms.
A couple more storm systems are on tap by this weekend and/or next week, with significant precipitation. Ensembles currently being split on timing of the next system by this weekend. Arctic air will also begin to make a move south into the USA next week. Stay tuned for updates as details become more clear.
