Mountain Area Forecast ( Jan 16-19 )
Several Significant To Major Storm Systems Will Be Impacting The Mountain Region During The Next Five To Ten Days, And Beyond In Time, With A Colder Trend Developing During The January 23-31 Period.
Strong rises on streams will begin to become more of a concern during this stormy pattern. Folks living and driving through low-lying, poor drainage and flood prone locations will need to keep alert of changing weather conditions. Stay tuned for updates.
ALERT For Dense Fog Continues Into Monday Morning
A very moist, saturated atmosphere will support widespread dense fog into Monday morning. Visibility will drop to a quarter mile or less in the more dense areas of fog. Caution is advised.
Overnight Into Mid-Morning Monday
Low clouds with widespread dense fog. A chance for drizzle. Winds SW to W at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures widespread in the 40s to around 50 degrees.
Partly cloudy & unseasonably mild. Winds SSW-SW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from low to mid 50s in upper elevations to the lower-middle 60s.
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
Cloudy. Becoming windy with a chance of showers and downpours overnight into morning. Thunder possible. Winds S-SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges & plateaus below 2700 feet. Winds SW 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Mild with temperatures in the upper 40s to low-mid 50s. Dense fog redeveloping along upper elevation mountain ridges ( locally in other locations ).
Low clouds. Windy. Showers redeveloping, with a chance of thunder ( especially by late ). SW winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts. Dense fog along upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures from around 50 degrees at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the upper 50s to middle 60s ( warmest in lower elevations ).
Tuesday Night Into Mid-Morning Wednesday
Showers with a chance of thunder. Downpours likely. Gusty SW winds at 10-25 mph, with higher gusts, shifting WNW by morning and decreasing to 5-15 mph. Mild through the overnight then turning colder during morning. Temps widespread in the 50s, then dropping into the 40s and 30s during the predawn to mid-morning period ( coldest at the highest elevations ). Areas of fog with widespread dense fog across the upper elevations. Wind chills developing by morning with values dropping into the 20s and 30s.
Updated: Wednesday Afternoon
Partly to mostly cloudy ( cloudier toward the north and northwest of Wise ). Chilly. Winds WNW-NW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from upper 30s to around 40 degrees at highest elevations to the mid-upper 40s to around 50 degrees ( warmer southward into valleys of the Clinch, Powell, Holston rivers ).
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Mostly clear during the evening, then increasing high altitude clouds overnight into morning. Areas of fog possible, especially at lower-middle elevations. A large vertical temperature spread developing between valleys & ridges. Light & variable winds below 2700 feet. Winds SW to WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures varying from low-mid 20s in high valleys to the 30s, except readings rising into 40s on higher elevation ridges by predawn-morning.
The return of a colder, wintry pattern is being monitored for the January 23-31 period. This could begin with a major storm system, featuring high winds and a heavy rainfall to high elevation snow potential. Stay tuned for later updates.
Weather Discussion ( Active Pattern )
Wednesday Morning Update
Low clouds are breaking up along the southeast edge of a large cloud shield, so I have updated my Wednesday PM forecast to account for this current trend.
If this trend continues, afternoon temperatures will be a little milder and sunshine more abundant. A low cloud deck will likely remain very close by, near the Virginia-Kentucky stateline, such that conditions will vary significantly over short distances along the U.S. 23 corridor.
Turbulent mixing, enhanced by mountain waves, appears to have been able to mix out a relatively narrow inversion just above the summit level of the High Knob Massif to open up clouds. To the northwest, by notable contrast, where mountain waves are lacking, a solid deck of clouds is continuing to hold.
Monday Evening Update
A stormy weather pattern is upcoming for the mountain region during the next 1-2+ weeks. It is important to begin highlighting this now, as the first wave will start impacting the mountains overnight into Tuesday ( the weakest wave ).
The European Ensembles remain very consistent day after day in the upcoming forecast setting, with blocking taking shape near Hudson Bay and a storm train of waves moving across the USA from west to east beneath it.
As I have already noted, many days ago, the combination of Pacific Ocean moisture ( mid-upper levels ) & Gulf of Mexico moisture ( low-levels ) with orographic forcing will make upcoming systems productive precipitation producers. Given all the wetness of the past 7 weeks, an increasing threat for too much water will have to be respected.
As the EPO trends negative by around January 23, it will join a +PNA to help a colder pattern to develop. Until then rain will continue to be the major precipitation form.