A Much Colder Weather Pattern Will Dominate The Mountain Region During The January 26-30 Period. Several Waves Will Bring Flurries & Snow Showers, With The Most Significant Potential Developing By This Weekend ( January 29 ).
*Although some slick travel could develop into morning hours of Friday & Saturday, the most significant and widespread impact is expected during January 29-30 when an Alert For Widespread Hazardous Travel will be likely with moderate-heavy snow.
Overnight Into Wednesday Morning
Mostly clear. Colder. Areas of valley fog in low elevations. Increasing SSW-WSW winds on mid-upper elevation ridges to 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, by morning. Temps from the 20s to lower 30s, rising on exposed mountain ridges and plateaus during the overnight-morning.
Wednesday Afternoon
Partly to mostly sunny, then increasing clouds by late. Windy. SSW-SW winds 15 to 25 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from upper 40s to low 50s in upper elevations to the upper 50s to low-mid 60s ( warmest in downslope locations from Pound to Grundy ).
Wednesday Night Into Mid-Morning Thursday
Cloudy with evening rain developing. Windy. Brief downpours giving way to overnight showers and drizzle to possible flurries. SW winds shifting W-WNW at 10-25 mph, with higher gusts. Turning colder. Temps dropping into the middle 20s to mid-upper 30s by morning ( coldest at the highest elevations ). Wind chills falling into the 10s & 20s.
Thursday Afternoon
Mostly cloudy. Cold. Chance of flurries. Windy. WSW-WNW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures nearly steady or slowly falling in the 30s ( lower-middle elevations ) and 20s ( upper elevations ). Wind chills in the 10s & 20s ( except single digits in gusts at high elevations ).
Thursday Night Into Mid-Morning Friday
Cloudy. Cold. Chance of flurries & snow showers. Light accumulations possible. Winds W-WNW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from the mid-upper 10s to the mid-upper 20s to around 30 degrees ( coldest at highest elevations ). Wind chill factors in the 10s and 20s, except 0 to 10 degrees on upper elevation mountain ridges. Rime formation at highest elevations.
Although some light accumulations, with a dusting to locally 1″+ could occur through Saturday, the heaviest and most widespread snowfall is expected to develop during the January 29-30 period.
Friday Afternoon
Mostly cloudy. Cold. A chance of flurries or snow showers. Winds W-WNW 5-15 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from upper 10s to lower 20s at highest elevations to the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds chills mostly in the 10s & 20s, with single digits along upper elevation ridges.
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Cloudy. Snow showers. Cold. Light accumulations. Winds SW-W 10-20 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from mid-upper 10s at highest elevations to the mid-upper 20s. Wind chills in the single digits and teens, except sub-zero in stronger gusts at highest elevations.
Heavier snow showers and snow squalls ( bursts of heavy snow ) will be likely during the Sunday into Monday period. An Alert For Hazardous Travel will likely be needed.
Weather Discussion ( Winter Returns )
January-like cold will finally be returning to the mountain landscape by Thursday through this weekend, in wake of a major storm system dominated by rain and strong rises on creeks-streams.
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Preliminary Storm Rainfall Totals ( January 23-24 )
City of Norton WP: 1.56″ ( 5.12″ In January )
Nora 4 SSE: 1.67″
Clintwood 1 W: 1.83″
Black Mountain Mesonet: 2.90″ ( 7.05″ In January )
*Widespread 1.50″ to 3.00″ storm rainfall totals were observed along & northwest-north of the High Knob Massif-Black Mountain and Tennessee Valley Divide corridor during January 23-24. Rain mixed with snow fell at summit levels of the High Knob Massif from Monday afternoon into Tuesday AM, but with generally no accumulation ( temps near to just above freezing ).
Snowfall totals of 2-6″+ were reported within upper elevations of central-northern West Virginia ( no accumulations have yet been reported across southern Appalachian peaks ).
Big Stony Creek Stream Levels During January 20-24, 2017
Strong rises occurred on creeks, with Big Stony Creek cresting only 12″ ( 1 foot ) below flood stage following between 2.00″ to 3.00″ of rain at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif.
Guest River Stream Levels
Around 4 to 6 vertical feet of water level rise occurred on larger streams, such as the Guest River and Clinch River.
Clinch River At Speers Ferry
The focus now shifts toward a cold 3-7 day period upcoming.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 500 MB Height Anomalies Forecast
A +PNA ( Pacific North American Oscillation ), which has been very limited in nature this winter season, will be in place to help force an eastern USA upper air trough.
Several embedded disturbances ( waves ) in the flow will drop into the upper trough over the eastern USA to trigger snow showers and flurries through this weekend into early next week.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomalies Forecast
Colder than average temperatures will dominate the 3-7 day period into early next week. The trend beyond that time is uncertain, with ongoing changes underway amid the high latitudes involved with a displacement of the polar vortex away from the North Pole and warming in the stratosphere. Tropospheric model volatility is expected.
