020317 Forecast

Mountain Area Forecast ( Feb 3-5 )

Strong SW Winds And Some Light Snow & Mix Will Be Possible Into Superbowl Sunday Morning – Especially Along And Southwest Of The High Knob Massif And Tennessee Valley Divide

A seasonally cold air mass across the Cumberland Mountains will continue through this weekend.  Strong winds will develop at the middle-upper elevations Saturday Night into Sunday as a limited moisture containing disturbance crosses the mountains.

Overnight Into Mid-Morning Friday

Mostly cloudy.  Small chance of some flurries.  Light northerly winds generally less than 10 mph.  Temps widespread in the 20s ( varying from upper 10s in the coldest locations to the upper 20s ).  Milder southward within the Great Valley.

Friday Afternoon

Partly to mostly cloudy.  NW winds 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from low-mid 20s at highest elevations to the mid-upper 30s.  Wind chills in the 10s and 20s to around 30 degrees.

Friday Night Into Mid-Morning Saturday

Mostly clear.  Cold.  Northerly winds decreasing to generally less than 10 mph on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures varying from single digits in colder valleys of upper elevations within the High Knob Massif to the middle-upper 10s.

Saturday Afternoon

Mostly sunny.  Cold.  Light northerly winds shifting SE to S and increasing to 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on middle-upper elevation mountain ridges by late.  Temps varying from upper 20s to lower 30s in upper elevations to the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

Becoming cloudy and windy.  Chance of light snow and mix developing during the predawn-morning.  S-SSW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  SW-WSW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temps widespread in the 20s to near 30 degrees.  Wind chills in the 10s and 20s.

Superbowl Sunday Afternoon

Mostly cloudy. Small chance for a shower-flurry.  Freezing fog possible along high crestlines in the High Knob Massif.  Winds SW to W at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts along upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures mainly in the 30s to low-mid 40 degrees ( near 30 degrees highest elevations ).  Wind chills in the 20s to lower 30s, except 10s along the highest mountain ridges.

A major storm system is being monitored for the February 7-9 period.  Strong winds, thunderstorms and significant rainfall amounts will be possible prior to a temperature plunge.  Stay tuned for later updates.


Weather Discussion ( Chilly )

A seasonally chilly air mass will continue to dominate the Cumberland Mountains through this weekend.  Snow cover remains widespread at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif ( especially northern slopes ) where slick conditions continue to be observed in patches on northern slope roads.

*Visitors to the High Knob Lookout should use caution, especially along the northern face of the mountain on Route 238 as well as on portions of State Route 619 & Route 237 ( toward Big Cherry Lake ). 
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Reference my 013017 Forecast Discussion for details on the snow.

The 6-8″+ of snow did not disappear overnight in the high country of the massif, especially within the lofty basins and northern slopes of upper elevations.

Dendrite On Top Of Accumulated Snow – January 29, 2017

Although this weekend system will have limited moisture, strong winds will offer at least the opportunity for some orographic enhancement to occur into Sunday morning as strong SW winds blow upward into the high country of the massif and adjacent Tennessee Valley Divide.  Just a little more moisture than currently predicted by models would make it notable, so stay tuned for possible updates if you live from the Wise & Sandy Ridge plateaus southwest.

European Model 850 MB Temperature Forecast At 7 AM Tuesday – February 7, 2017

The main focus through this next week will be on a major storm system, with powerful low pressure development, which will push the 0 Celsius ( 32 F ) line far to the north Tuesday ( above ) before temps crash by Thursday ( below ).

European Model 850 MB Temperature Forecast At 7 AM Thursday – February 9, 2017

Stay tuned for later updates on this potent storm system.