020617 Forecast

Mountain Area Forecast ( Feb 6-9 )

Current ALERT For Accumulating Snow & Hazardous Driving Conditions In Combination With Bitter Cold Air Is In Effect Into Mid-Day Thursday For Locations Along The Upslope Side Of The Cumberlands ( With Respect To NW Winds )

Snow-ice accumulations are expected in most locations along the upslope side of the mountains ( down to 1000-1500 feet ) through mid-morning Thursday.  Accumulations of 1″ or less are generally expected below 2500 feet, with 1″ to 2″ expected above 3000 feet.  Locally higher amounts will be possible within upper elevations  of the High Knob Massif, Black Mountain and Clinch Mountain.
*As of 5:30 to 6:00 AM a combination of sleet & snow was falling in lower elevations from Pound to Clintwood ( 30 degrees at 1560 feet elevation in Clintwood ) with sticking occurring.  Generally all snow was falling at mid-upper elevations with portions of State Route 619, Route 237 and Route 238 icy and snow covered in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif where the air temperature had fallen to around 20 degrees.  In between, many roads in middle elevations are developing slick patches.  

The Storm Prediction Center Has Issued A Marginal To Slight Risk For Severe Thunderstorms For Wednesday Afternoon & Evening

ALERT For Development Of Strong SW Winds From Monday Night Through Tuesday At Middle-Upper Elevations In The Cumberland Mountains

Periods of showers, with a chance for thunderstorms, will be possible from late Monday through Wednesday.  Strong & gusty SW winds will transport abundant moisture into the mountains with a heavy rainfall potential as a boundary slows.  Much colder air with a wind shift to the WNW-NNW is expected by Thursday.
Cold air and upslope snow accumulations are being monitored for Thursday.  Stay tuned for later updates on this wintry potential.

Overnight Into Monday Morning

High clouds.  Seasonally cold.  Winds SW at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Large vertical temperature spread between colder valleys and milder ridges.  Temperatures varying from the 10s to middle 20s in colder valleys to the low-middle 30s.

Monday Afternoon

Becoming cloudy with a chance of showers, especially by late.  SSW winds increasing to 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  SW winds 10-20 mph & gusty on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures varying from upper 40s-lower 50s at highest elevations to the mid to upper 50s to around 60 degrees ( warmest in downslope locations from Pound-Clintwood to Haysi-Grundy ).

Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning

A chance of showers.  Windy.  SSW-SW winds 10-25 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges & plateaus below 2700 feet.  SW winds 20-35 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures mainly in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  Areas of dense fog ( generally widespread in upslope areas of the High Knob Massif ).

Tuesday Afternoon

Cloudy & windy.  A chance of showers & thunderstorms.  SSW to SW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts.  Mild with temperatures varying from low-mid 50s highest elevations to the low-mid 60s.

Strong rises on creeks & streams will be possible if heavy rainfall develops into Wednesday.  People living and driving through flood prone, low-lying locations will need to remain alert to changing weather conditions.

Tuesday Night Into Mid-Morning Wednesday

Showers with a chance for thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rainfall.  SSW-WSW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along middle to upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps in the 40s to lower 50s.  Areas of dense fog ( widespread amid upper elevations ).

Wednesday Afternoon-Early Evening

Showers with a chance for thunderstorms by late.  Locally heavy rainfall amounts.  Some storms could be strong to locally severe.  SW winds shifting NW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from lower 50s at highest elevations to the lower-middle 60s.

A temperature plunge is expected into Thursday with snow accumulations.  Amounts of 1″ or less are expected below 3000 feet, with 1-2″ above 3000 feet.  Locally higher amounts will be possible at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif.



Weather Discussion ( Stormy )

A stormy weather pattern is taking shape as air masses clash across the region during coming days, with large temperature fluctuations expected this week.

First Quarter Moon Rise Through Ice Crystal Clouds – February 5, 2017

Low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies will track east toward the Great Lakes and into northeastern Canada by Wednesday, with a trailing front and additional waves continuing rainfall along the mountains.

NAM 12 KM Model Total Precipitation Forecast To 7 AM Thursday – February 9

Climatology of forecast wind vectors suggests that a heavy rainfall potential will arise along the western slopes of the Appalachians, with some models like the NAM beginning to reflect this in their forecast’s.  These need to be monitored closely today into Tuesday.

Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions To 7 AM Wednesday – February 8, 2017

Meanwhile, the Storm Prediction Center ( SPC ) has issued a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms for a large region along and mainly west of the Appalachians for the Tuesday-Wednesday period.

SPC Discussion For Tuesday Into Wednesday ( February 7-8 )

Although a wild up and down pattern continues, the MEAN of the 51-Member European Ensemble group suggests that winter is by no means over.

European Ensemble 51-Member MEAN 500 MB Height Anomaly Forecast: Days 6-10

The potential for an important winter storm impacting the eastern USA remains alive, despite a notable ( record pace ) snow drought across the southern Appalachians.

Reference Late Winter In The High Knob Massif for a brief look at some snow lingering amid the high country from January 29-30.