Mountain Area Forecast ( Feb 13-15 )
An ALERT For Heavy, Wet Snow Is In Effect From 10:00 PM Tuesday Until 10:00 AM Wednesday For Elevations Above 2500-3000 Feet
Rain and wet snow, with mostly snow above 3000 feet in elevation, is expected to develop across the area late Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Significant amounts of snow will be possible for upper elevations, above 3000 feet, with light-moderate snowfall amounts at elevations above 2500 feet.
Little to no snow accumulation is expected below 2000 feet.
NW winds will continue to gust 30-40+ mph at mid-upper elevations overnight into early Monday, especially on the mountain ridges, with dropping wind chill values as air temperatures continue dropping. Caution is advised.
Overnight Into Monday Morning
Partly cloudy. Windy. NW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, especially on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus. Temperatures dropping into the 20s, varying from near 20 degrees highest elevations to near 30 degrees. Wind chills in the 10s and 20s, except single digits in gusts along upper elevation mountain ridges.
Mostly sunny. Some increasing high clouds by mid-late afternoon. NW winds diminishing to 5-10 mph, with a few higher gusts along mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from low-mid 30s in upper elevations to the low-mid 40s.
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
Increasing mid-high altitude clouds. Light winds shifting WSW to WNW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges. A vertical temp spread from 10s to middle 20s in mountain valleys versus 30s along exposed middle to upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.
Partly to mostly cloudy. SW winds increasing to 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts. Temperatures varying from 30s in upper elevations to the mid 40s to around 50 degrees at the lower-middle elevations. Wind chills in the 20s and 30s on gusty mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.
Tuesday Night Into Mid-Morning Wednesday
Rain, sleet & snow developing. Heavy, wet snow possible, especially at elevations above 2500-3000 feet. SW winds shifting W-NW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temps from the 20s in upper elevations to the low-mid 30s.
Snowfall Forecast: 10 PM Tuesday – 10 AM Wednesday
A general 3″ to 5″ of snow is expected above 3000 feet in the High Knob Massif to Black Mountain corridor, with locally higher amounts to around 6″ possible in the massif ( this also includes upper elevations of Clinch Mountain and the Whitetop-Mount Rogers area in southwestern Virginia ).
Target Snowfall of 2″ In Wise (+/-) 1″ Error Potential. This suggests the potential for 1″ to 3″ of snow at elevations below 3000 feet in the middle elevation zone. Little to no snow is now expected to accumulate at elevations below 2000 ( within lower elevations ).
A general 1″ to 2″ is expected above 2200 feet, with rain & snow and little to no accumulation expected at elevations below 2000 feet.
*While nearly all snow is expected above 3000 feet elevation, the ultimate amounts observed across middle elevations will be determined by how low the level of sticking snow drops overnight into Wednesday morning.
Weather Discussion ( To Snow Or Not )
Tuesday Afternoon Update
An elevation biased snow event will be developing Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning. Significant differences in amounts are expected in the vertical, varying from little to no accumulation below 2000 feet to as much as 3″-6″ above 3000 feet in the High Knob Massif-Black Mountain area.
A mackerel sky above UVA-Wise is a sign of changing weather conditions upcoming tonight into Wednesday Morning.
Wet, slushy snow amounts of 1-2″ will be possible down to around the elevations of Norton-Wise, and adjacent ridge communities across central-southern Wise and Dickenson counties ( mainly during the overnight-predawn period ).
Hazardous travel conditions are expected in locations that are impacted by a fall of wet snow ( snow to water ratios are expected to be around 10:1 during this event ).
Early afternoon temperatures in the upper 30s ( 38 degrees on Black Mountain, hovering in the 36 to 37 degree range on Eagle Knob of the High Knob Massif ) and dewpoints in the 10s indicates significant evaporative cooloing will produce all snow at highest elevations, with a mixture of rain-snow and sleet possible during this fast hitting event at lower and middle elevations.