Mountain Area Forecast ( Feb 27-Mar 1 )
ALERT For Strong SSW-WSW Winds From Tuesday Afternoon Through Wednesday Afternoon
******THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW AND RAPID FORWARD MOVEMENT…NO SCHOOL SYSTEMS ALONG THE VA-KY BORDER SHOULD BE PLANNING TO DISMISS AT NOON – WHEN THE LINE IS FORECAST TO STRIKE ( 11 AM TO NOON )
The Storm Prediction Center Has Issued An Enhanced Risk For Severe Thunderstorms Wednesday ( Today ) With A Wind Damage Producing Squall Line Expected To Arrive At The VA-KY Border Around Mid-Day
*An Outbreak Of Severe Thunderstorms ( Squall Line With Possible Local Supercells In Advance Of Line ) Is Expected During Early-Mid Afternoon Hours On Wednesday.
**Wind Damage will be the greatest threat, with a notable power outage potential. Damaging hail and local tornado spin-ups can not be ruled out. This is a SERIOUS Setting.
Watches & Warnings Will Be Likely – Stay Tuned To NOAA Weather Radio & Local Media For Updates
Overnight Into Monday Morning
Increasing high clouds. SSE-S winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges below 2700 feet. SSW-SW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures varying from 20-25 degrees in the colder valleys to readings steady or rising into upper 30s to lower 40s along gusty mountain ridges.
Mostly cloudy ( mid-high clouds ). SSE-SSW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from 40s at highest elevations to the middle 50s-lower 60s.
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
Partly to mostly cloudy. SSE-SSW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures in the upper 30s to the upper 40s.
Although atmospheric conditions able to support strong-severe thunderstorms will develop Tuesday Afternoon, some parameters ( i.e., instability-moisture and lift ) will remain strongest and best defined west of the Appalachians.
Increasingly strong wind fields will develop intense shear ( storm relative helicity ) along the mountains Tuesday afternoon-night, such that a strong or severe thunderstorm can not be ruled out with activity that may move in from the west or form locally.
Partly-mostly cloudy. Unseasonably warm. A chance for showers & thunderstorms ( a locally strong-severe storm possible ). Becoming windy. SSW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet. SSW-SW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures varying from middle-upper 50s at highest elevations to the upper 60s to mid 70s ( warmest downslope sites from Pound-Clintwood to Haysi-Grundy ).
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Mostly cloudy. Windy & unseasonably mild. A chance for showers & thunderstorms ( a locally strong-severe storm possible ). SSW to SW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet. SW winds 20-30 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures widespread in the 50s to around 60 degrees.
A spring severe weather day is on tap for Wednesday with potential for an Outbreak of Strong-Severe Thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians.
Windy with showers & thunderstorms developing. Storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds. Downpours likely. Hail possible. Winds SW at 15-30 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from 50s at highest elevations to the mid-upper 60s.
Much colder air is again expected Thursday-Friday ( March 2-3 ) with widespread below freezing temperatures and wind chills.
Weather Discussion ( In Like A Lion )
Monday Afternoon Update
While Wednesday ( March 1 ) is clearly going to be THE DAY when all ingredients converge toward an outbreak of severe thunderstorms along the mountains, a strong-severe storm can also not be ruled out beginning Tuesday afternoon for locations along and west of the Cumberland Mountains and Cumberland Plateau ( SE Kentucky and Tennessee ).
Winds Monday have been a little stronger and temps a bit cooler than my initial forecast, amid an ominous looking haze in late February at the conclusion of Meteorological Winter.
Perhaps that ominous look from the CAM extends from the many graphics I have been viewing showing conditions that become favorable for tornadoes on Wednesday, with an inverted-V sounding and twisting storm slinky’s forecast vertically above Wise County and the City of Norton.
*The above just being chosen points, as these conditions will extend across a large region.
If these trends continue, then a RARE Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms ( rare for the end of Meteorological Winter and Dawn of Meteorological Spring ) may be issued over or very close to the mountain area by the SPC during Wednesday ( with a Tornado Watch ). Stay tuned for updates on this developing severe weather threat.
Reference Major Severe Outbreak Of March 2012 to review a setting that occurred 5 years ago at the beginning of March.