A Period Of Snow & Snow Showers Is Expected During The Predawn To Mid-Morning Hours Of Friday. Snow Amounts Of A Dusting Up To 1″ Is Expected Along The Upslope Side Of The Mountains ( A Little More Possible At Upper Elevations Of The High Knob Massif ).
Caution For Slick Patches On Area Roadways.
*Some school schedule changes will be possible given the timing and cold conditions expected around sunrise into mid-morning. Stay tuned to your favorite media sources for updates on any delays or closings.
Predawn Snowfall Report
As of 6:00 AM Friday Morning between 0.5″ to 1″ of snow has accumulated in Clintwood, with 1″ or more at higher sites in central-southern Dickenson & Wise counties ( 1-2″ on Eagle Knob of the High Knob Massif at 6:00 AM where roads are snow covered & slick ). Locally more than 2″ of snow will accumulate at highest elevations.
Overnight Into Thursday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Gusty & turning colder. W-NW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from around 20 degrees at highest elevations to near 30 degrees. Wind chills falling into the 10s and 20s, except single digits along high mountain ridges.
Thursday Afternoon
Partly-mostly sunny. WNW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from low-mid 30s in upper elevations to the low-mid 40s.
Thursday Night Into Mid-Morning Friday
Mostly clear during the evening, then increasing clouds with snow showers & flurries developing during the pre-dawn to mid-morning period. A dusting up to 1″ of snow accumulation possible. WSW-W winds shifting NW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from the upper 10s-low 20s at highest elevations to the upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind chills in the 10s & 20s, except single digits to around 0 degrees in gusts at highest elevations.
*The most snow accumulation into mid-morning Friday will be favored at high elevations from the High Knob Massif and Black Mountain to Whitetop-Mount Rogers and the Brumley to Garden Mountain section of Clinch Mountain and Big A Mountain.
Friday Afternoon
Becoming mostly sunny. Cold. NW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from low-mid 20s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 30s. Wind chills in the 10s & 20s, with some single digits in gusts highest peaks.
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Partly-mostly clear. Cold. Diminishing winds, except NW-N at 5-10 mph, with a few higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures dropping into the 10s and 20s ( near 10 degrees in colder valleys of upper elevations ).
Saturday Afternoon
Becoming partly-mostly cloudy. Milder. Light & variable winds. Temperatures varying from 30s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 40s.
Weather Discussion ( Spring to Winter )
Thursday Evening Update
Beginning Of Meteorological Spring – Afternoon of March 2, 2017
A chilly air mass will combine with a upper wave to develop snow showers & flurries into the predawn to mid-morning hours of Friday. Just enough snow may fall to create some slick travel on mountain roadways. Caution is advised.
HRRR Model Future Doppler Forecast At 5:00 AM Friday – March 3, 2017
Previous Discussion
A gush of high winds roared across the Virginia-Kentucky stateline to mark a gust front out ahead of a squall line containing strong-severe thunderstorms Wednesday.
Partial List Of Storm Reports On March 1, 2017
More than 1200 preliminary storm reports have been collected by the Storm Prediction Center for the February 28-March 1 period, and that does not include significant damage which occurred in Pound as well as other places across Wise, Dickenson and Buchanan counties where power outages also occurred.
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Morning clouds were abundant over the High Knob Massif amid strong low-level lifting on roaring SW winds. At the same time, by contrast, sunshine was much more prevalent in the Pound to Clintwood corridor on downslope SW flow.
NAM 4 KM Model Forecast Sounding Above Pound At 10:00 AM Wednesday
The NAM 4 KM Model forecast 3-hour sounding on Wednesday indicated “marginal tornado” above the Town of Pound in far northern Wise County, Va., which meant that conditions in the vertical were borderline for tornado development.
While a local spin-up certainly could have occurred, most of the area was subjected to strong straight-line winds which reached sustained speeds of 35 mph, with gusts to 47 mph, at Lonesome Pine Airport in Wise. Much higher local gusts occurred in the area with the squall line gust front, as well as inside local storms within the convective system.
Storm rainfall totals topped 2.00″ in the High Knob Massif, with around 1.00″ measured in Clintwood at the other end of the range.
NAM 4 KM Model Total Snowfall Forecast
The NAM 4 KM Model is wanting to put down a light coating in lower elevations ( foothill and bluegrass terrain ) of northern Kentucky. While that may be possible, amounts may be too ambitious outside of the higher terrain in the mountains.
Cold air today into Friday will now bring a chance for some flurries and snow showers in the predawn to mid-morning period of Friday. Any accumulations will be light and likely most favored in upper elevations since again no good Great Lake connection can be had ( the moral of Winter 2016-17 ).
NAM 4 KM Model MIN Temperature Forecast For Saturday AM – March 4, 2017
The stage will be set for a very cold Saturday morning as winds diminish. The wild card being if skies can remain clear? If skies remain clear the potential for 10s in many mountain valleys will be realized, with the very coldest at upper elevations ( above 3000 ft in the High Knob Massif ) dropping to around 10 degrees.
