030817 Forecast

Mountain Area Forecast ( March 8-10 )

A Colder Pattern With Potential Of Accumulating Snowfall Is Being Monitored For This Weekend ( March 11-12 ).  Check Back For Later Updates On A Possible Winter Storm.

Overnight Into Wednesday Morning

Cloudy & windy with a chance of rain showers through early-mid overnight, then clearing skies toward morning.  WNW-NW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, decreasing to 5-15 mph ( with higher gusts ) by morning.  Temperatures dropping into the lower-middle 30s to low-mid 40s ( coldest in upper elevations ).  Wind chills falling into the 20s & 30s along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges ( 10s in gusts at highest elevations ).

Wednesday Afternoon

 Partly-mostly sunny.  WSW-WNW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from mid-upper 40s at highest elevations to the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning

Partly-mostly clear ( some high clouds ).  Winds SW-WSW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along higher mountain ridges.  Temps varying from the 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys to the 40s along exposed mountain ridges-plateaus.

Thursday Afternoon

Mostly sunny.  Mild.  SW winds 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from low-mid 50s in the upper elevations to the lower to middle 60s.

Thursday Night Into Friday Morning

Becoming windy & cloudy.  Rain developing by morning.  Downpours possible.  SW-WSW winds increasing to 10-25 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s ( dropping early in valleys then rising overnight ).

Friday Afternoon

Showers ending.  Becoming partly cloudy.  Windy and turning colder.  NW-NNW winds 10-25 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures falling through the 40s at middle to lower elevations, and through the 30s in upper elevations.  Wind chills dropping into 20s & 30s ( coldest above 3000 feet in elevation ).


Weather Discussion ( Winter Storm? )

The main focus in coming days will be on a series of upper disturbances in the flow field crossing North America, with one or more having the potential to generate some wintry precipitation.  Is a significant snowfall upcoming?  Perhaps, but it remains too early in the game to declare a winner.

Big Cherry Wetland Valley of High Knob Massif – March 4, 2017

The setting is not like 27 years ago this week when we were already certain that a major March storm ( a Superstorm or Snow Hurricane ) would hammer the mountain region.

GFS Model Total Snowfall Forecast – Next 5 DAYS
In this case models have been consistently showing snow, but with variations in amounts and the tracks of more than one system.  It appears that Saturday afternoon into Sunday will initially offer the best chance for significant snowfall.
GEM ( Canadian ) Model Total Snowfall Forecast – Next 5 DAYS

The system above follows a lead wave that brings rain into Friday, and comes in advance of yet another storm system which could be a bigger deal for the Northeastern USA ( and possibly add snow to the southern-central Appalachians ).

GOES West Water Vapor Image At Midnight – March 8, 2017

With swirls responsible for upcoming weather still over the Pacific Ocean, it is simply too soon to forecast exactly how this will play out over the area ( and certainly too early for snowfall amount predictions ).  Models which are and have been forecasting snow amounts are used for guidance, not gospel, at this point in time.

The Bottom Line…A colder pattern is upcoming by this weekend into early to middle parts of next week.  The potential for snowfall, possibly significant, is being monitored.  Check back for later updates.