062717 Forecast

Mountain Area Forecast ( June 27-29 )

Overnight Into Tuesday Morning

Increasing overnight clouds.  Small chance of a shower or sprinkle.  Light NW-N winds increasing to 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Tuesday Morning Through The Afternoon

Partly to mostly sunny.  Small chance of a hit-miss shower or thunderstorm.  Increasingly blue skies.  NW winds 5-10 mph.  Temperatures varying from low 60s to the lower 70s.

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning

Clear.  Large vertical temperature spread between colder mountain valleys and exposed ridges.  Light winds.  Temps varying from low-mid 40s valleys to low-mid 50s on ridges, except 30s in coldest valleys of upper elevations.  Areas of locally dense river valley fog.

Wednesday Afternoon

Mostly sunny.  Mild.  SSW-SW winds 5-10 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from 60s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning

Becoming partly to mostly cloudy.  Becoming windy across higher mountain ridges.  SSW-SW winds 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  SW winds 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700-3000 feet.  Temperatures from the upper 40s to middle 50s in cooler valleys during the evening to the upper 50s to mid 60s along gusty mountain ridges ( temps tending to rise overnight in many mountain valleys ).

Thursday Afternoon

A chance of hit-miss showers & thunderstorms.  SSW-SW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from low-mid 70s in upper elevations to the low-middle 80s.

A hit-miss pattern of showers and downpours in thunderstorms is expected to return for the close of June and opening of July, with increased humidity levels more typical of summer-time.  A front stalling near the Mountain Empire will have to be monitored by this weekend into early next week.


Weather Discussion ( Chilly Valleys )

A welcomed and refreshing break from summer-time humidity levels is being enjoyed this week.  Morning temperatures dipped to 48 degrees ( 47.6 ) in Clintwood Monday, with 40-45 degrees in colder mountain valleys.

June Minimum Temperature Records ( 1896-Present ) – Burkes Garden

Colder places in upper elevations will make a run at the 30s into Wednesday morning, when conditions for radiational cooling and cold air drainage ( with nocturnal inversions ) will rule mountain valleys in three-dimensional space and time.  In other words, multiple inversions amid the vertical will develop from lower, into middle and upper elevations.

If any doubt this be true, merely check the recorded history in Burkes Garden where the past 121 years have illustrated that every single June night has experienced low temps in the 30s ( or lower ) at some point in time ( a MIN as cold as 26 degrees was recorded on June 1 in 1930, with 28 degrees as late as June 26 during 1935 ).

*The undergraduate field research project at the University Of Virginia’s College At Wise is illustrating that nocturnal minimums tend to run even colder than Burkes Garden within high valleys of the High Knob Massif ( at upper elevations above 3000 feet ).
June 22-24 Storm Reports

Jackson KY NWS Forecast Office – Cindy Review

The Cumberland Mountains were lucky, pure and simple, to have escaped flooding rains and wind damage ( minor tree damage occurred locally ) that occurred last week.

*An impressive 8.42″ rainfall total was recorded at the Morehead Airport in Rowan County, Ky., during last week ( June 18-24) with torrential rains prior to and during the remnants of Cindy.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 1-5

The pattern continues cooler than average for this time of year during the next few days, with below average 500 MB heights centered on the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomalies: Days 1-5

The pattern gives way to one more typical of summer by this weekend into next week, and the Independence Holiday period, with rising 500 MB heights and temperatures.

European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 6-10

Weak troughing in the upper air across the eastern USA indicates that the pattern will not get out of hand with heating during this period.  Temperatures near to a little above average are currently being forecast by the MEAN ensemble guidance during the first week of July 2017.

European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomalies: Days 6-10

A pattern typical of summer in the mountains is expected, with hit-miss showers & downpours in thunderstorms.  The potential for more organized activity along any boundaries which stall will have to be respected amid an array of what is likely to be many dry hours in between active weather.