Mountain Area Forecast ( October 4-7 )
An Autumn Cold Front And Developing Tropical System Are Being Monitored For Possible Impacts Upon The Mountain Region By Later This Weekend Into Early Next Week ( October 8-10 )
Details on this setup are yet to be worked out, with the Tuesday night run of the operational European Model trending east to keep significant rains along and east of the mountains ( from the Blue Ridge east to southeast ). This is in contrast to the U.S. GFS Model, and most hurricane models, which track the tropical system much farther west. Timing of an approaching cold front and upper air trough will help determine where the tropical system goes and how any linkage between it and the frontal zone develops.
A shot of unseasonably cool air will likely follow whatever happens with this tropical system by the middle of next week. Stay tuned for updates.
Overnight Into Wednesday Morning
Mostly clear. Light winds, except SSE-SSW at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Large vertical temperature spread between colder mountain valleys and milder ridges. Temperatures varying from upper 20s to middle 30s in colder valleys to the upper 40s to lower-middle 50s on exposed ridges-plateaus. Areas of fog along major rivers.
Mostly sunny. Light winds. Temperatures varying from mid-upper 60s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 70s. Warmer south into the Great Valley and river valleys.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Mostly clear. Light winds. Large vertical temperature spread between colder mountain valleys and exposed ridges and plateaus. Temps varying from 30s in the colder valleys to the lower-middle 50s on exposed ridges-plateaus. Areas of river valley fog.
Mostly sunny ( some high clouds ). Light northerly winds. Temperatures varying from 60s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 70s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Mostly clear. Light winds. Large vertical temperature spread between colder valleys and exposed mountain ridges and plateaus. Temperatures varying from 30s to lower 40s in colder mountain valleys to the low-mid 50s on exposed ridges and plateaus.
Partly-mostly sunny ( high clouds ). Unseasonably warm. Light southerly winds. Temperatures varying from upper 60s to lower 70s in upper elevations to the upper 70s to lower 80s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Partly-mostly clear ( high clouds possible ). Becoming gusty higher elevations. SSE-SSW winds increasing to 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, into the overnight-morning. Temps from 40s in cooler mountain valleys ( sheltered from winds ) to mid-upper 50s to around 60 degrees on exposed middle-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus.
Reference My Latest Hellbender-Cloudsplitter Forecast section for details related to the race days of October 7-8.
Reference Mid-Autumn 2017 In The High Knob Massif for more views of conditions observed at the end of September.