020116 Forecast

My Forecast For Today ( February 1 )

ALERT For A Period Of Dense Fog Formation During Monday Afternoon-Evening For Mid-Upper Elevations Along & North Of The High Knob Massif & Tennessee Valley Divide On Upsloping Northerly Winds 

Overnight Into Monday Morning

Increasing low-mid clouds.  A chance of light rain-showers by morning.  Winds SSW-SW 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along middle elevation ridges & plateaus below 2700 feet.  SSW-SW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures widespread in the 40s to low-mid 50s ( mildest temps on exposed middle elevation ridges-plateaus of the thermal belt ).  Wind chill in the 30s & 40s ( coldest at the highest elevations ).

This Afternoon

Rain & showers.  A chance of thunder.  SW winds shifting NNW-NNE and decreasing to 5-10 mph, with higher gusts along ridges.  Turning cooler.  Cloud bases dropping with potential for dense fog formation from elevations of Wise upward ( along and north of High Knob Massif ).  Patchy fog possible at lower elevations.  Temps dropping to the lower-middle 40s ( a little milder south, lee of mountains, into Clinch, Powell, Holston river valleys toward the Tri-Cities ).

Tonight Into Tuesday Morning

Chance of light rain or drizzle.  Chance of dense evening fog along middle-upper elevation ridges-plateaus giving way to patchy fog at lower-middle elevations as winds shift from northerly to SE-SSW at 5-15 mph.  Temperatures nearly steady in the 40s ( or slowly rising into morning on mid elevation ridges & plateaus ).

*Strong winds and showers-thunderstorms will be likely from late Tuesday into Wednesday.  A line of strong-severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will need to be closely watched as it approaches the mountains from the west.  Strong rises on creeks will also be possible.  Stay tuned for updates on this major storm system.


Weather Discussion ( Jan 31-Feb 1 )

Sunday was a LONG day for me.  After doing my nightly forecast it was up early to meet my buddy Roddy Addington at the City of Norton Water Plant for a run at the summit.

City of Norton Water Plant
City of Norton Water Plant – 10:25 AM on January 31, 2016
Reference My High Country Focus for more details.

Run-off from snow melt has been steady, but creeks are showing some rise with the Big Stony Creek gauge reaching the “Yellow Alert” stage of 3.0 feet as of 1:45 AM tonight.

Big Stony Creek Stream Gauge
Big Stony Creek Stream Gauge
This will factor into any heavy rainfall upcoming this week.
Lonesome Pine Airport In Wise
Lonesome Pine Airport In Wise

Meanwhile, Saturday Night through Sunday was all about strong SW winds which were simply ROARING like a big 747 had landed on top of High Knob.  Strong winds mixed down into Pound, Clintwood, and across nearly all of Wise and Dickenson counties during this period.

Black Mountain MesoNET
Black Mountain MesoNET Wind Graph

There is absolutely no doubt winds at High Knob Lookout topped 50 mph during this past day, with snow across all of the northern woods being wind blasted and covered by fine particles blown off trees.

European Model 850 MB Wind Field Analysis
European Model 850 MB Wind Field Analysis – 7 AM Sunday ( Jan 31 )

Winds will finally diminish, at least temporarily, today as a cold front passes and the flow turns northerly.  Rain with a possible rumble of thunder will give way to a little cooler conditions and cloud bases will drop later today into this evening to generate a period where dense fog formation will become possible for mid-upper elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif ( patchy fog being possible amid all locations with rain ).

I will try to update this later if possible.

Have a great Monday.