My Forecast For Today ( March 3 )
Updated At 3:00 PM: My ALERT For Any Significant Snow Accumulations Is Cancelled – Some Snow Is Possible Tonight-Friday Morning But Amounts Are Expected To Be Light ( Generally Less Than 1″ ).
A band of persistent snowfall had developed from northeastern Kentucky into western-southern West Virginia and will now be the focus of heaviest snowfall amounts during this event in our region
ALERT For An Accumulating Wet Snowfall Developing This Afternoon Into Tonight – All Snow Is Likely Above 2500 to 3000 Feet, With A Mixture Possible Below 2000 to 2500 Feet…Before Changing To All Snow.
Rain and snow will develop across the area this afternoon into tonight, with the elevation of the sticking snow level yet to be determined for this afternoon in locations along and north of the High Knob Massif. A mix or rain will be likely in the Powell Valley to Big Stone Gap corridor on downsloping winds off the High Knob Massif.
Overnight Into This Morning
Partly-mostly clear evening skies giving way to increasing clouds into morning. Light SSE-SSW winds at generally less than 10 mph on mountain ridges below 2700 feet. Winds S to W at 5-15 mph on upper elevation ridges. Temps varying from the upper 10s to the upper 20s, with readings tending to rise into morning, especially at high elevations.
Cloudy with rain & snow developing. All snow above 2500 to 3000 feet. A mixture possible at lower elevations, with a mixture likely within the Powell Valley to Big Stone Gap corridor. Winds ESE-SSE at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along middle elevation mountain ridges & plateaus. SE-S winds 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, in upper elevations. Temperatures in the 30s to around 40 degrees before a drop into the 20s to low-mid 30s after precipitation onset. Wind chills in the 10s & 20s exposed mid-upper elevation ridges.
Tonight Into Friday Morning
Snow at mid-upper elevations. A mix changing to all snow at lower elevations. Winds becoming NW-NNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, overnight into morning. Temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s. Wind chills in the 10s and 20s on exposed mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.
Snowfall Forecast – Thursday PM to Friday AM
1″ or less at elevations below 1500 feet
1″ to 2″ at elevations of 1500-2500 feet
2″ to 4″ at elevations of 2500-3500 feet
4″+ possible at elevations above 3500 feet
Target Snowfall of 2″ in Norton-Wise ( +/- ) 1″ spread potential. This implies a general 1″ to 3″ of snow possible. Locally higher amounts will occur if precipitation is all snow, while amounts could be less if more mix occurs.
*If an easterly component to the low-level flow develops, snowfall will be less than 1″ in the Powell Valley to Big Stone Gap corridor and into portions of Lee County. If a TIM Circulation should form precipitation amounts could be enhanced in the Norton-Big Stone Gap corridor, with more snow on the cold side of the boundary and enhanced rain on the warmer, sinking air side of the circulation.
Weather Discussion ( March 2-3 )
My Afternoon Update
Precipitation echoes have been over top the area since early this morning but little to nothing ( even sprinkles or flakes ) have reached the surface.
Much of the Mountain Empire has been caught in between main precipitation bands, one to the south with rain-storms and another which has set up from NE Kentucky into West Virginia. So I have cancelled my ALERT for any significant snowfall. The Winter Weather Advisory officially remains in effect into Friday AM.
The latest high-resolution NAM 4 KM Model seems to have picked up on the trend and placement of snowfall amounts.
“You have to know when to hold them, and when to fold them,” says Kenny Rogers, so in this case I am folding with respect to significant snowfall. Some snow may still occur but generally accumulations are likely to be less than 1″ in most places.
The forecast in words will remain unchanged, just snowfall amounts will be much less than expected. This is the update I was somewhat expecting from last night ( to either go up or down in amounts, amid this middle zone ).