032516 Forecast

My Forecast For Today ( March 25 )

Heavy frost will form tonight in mountain valleys.  A hard freeze will occur in colder valleys with a prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures overnight into Saturday morning.  Fog or patchy fog will be possible along major river and lakes in lower elevations.

Overnight Into This Morning

Showers, with a chance for thunder, decreasing overnight into morning.  Brief downpours possible through 4:00 AM.  Strong & gusty SW winds at 10-25 mph, with higher gusts, shifting WNW-NW & decreasing by morning.  Turning cool.  Temperatures varying from the upper 30s to the upper 40s to lower 50s ( coldest at highest elevations by morning and milder toward the Tri-Cities ).

Good Friday Afternoon

Becoming partly-mostly sunny.  Winds WNW-N at 5-15 mph. Cooler.  Temperatures varying from low-mid 40s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif to the lower 60s below 2000 feet ( 50s in Norton-Wise & the ridge communities ).

Tonight Into Saturday Morning

Mostly clear.  Cold.  Light easterly winds on mid-elevation ridges & plateaus.  Winds S-SW at 5-15 mph along highest mountain ridges.  Large vertical temperature spread with 20s to lower 30s in colder mountain valleys to the 40s on milder, exposed mid-upper elevation ridges.

 

Weather Discussion ( March 24-25 )

Reference my 032416 Forecast for details on Thursday conditions.

Roaring SW winds at high elevations last night mixed downward, as expected, into middle and lower elevations during the day Thursday.  Beneath partly sunny skies this generated unseasonably warm conditions until clouds and showers developed into late afternoon.

High Knob Massif Webcam
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise

PM temperatures peaked in the 60s to around 70 degrees in Norton-Wise and the Sandy Ridge communities.  Extremes varying from upper 50s to lower 60s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the mid-upper 70s in downslope locations of the Russell Fork and Levisa Fork basins.

As climatology dictates, the coolest conditions occurred amid SW Upslope flow while the warmest conditions developed on sinking air on SW downsloping.  This often generates up to 15-20 degrees of temperature difference between coolest and warmest places, with elevation differences, of course, playing a significant role.
Nora 4 SSE - NWS Site In Middle Elevations
Nora 4 SSE – NWS Site In Middle Elevations
PM wind gusts of 30-40+ mph were common across the area.

The High Knob Massif put on a nice show in between shower bands as orographic clouds capped high crestlines beneath mountain waves above.

High Knob Massif Webcam
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Observe a nice capping pilatus layer of clouds engulfing highest elevations along the massif on strong and gusty SW upslope flow, as multiple mountain waves formed just above.
High Knob Massif Webcam
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise

 Pollination and pollinators were seen to be increasing.

A Possible Hover Fly Species
A Possible Hover Fly Species on Common Dandelion – March 24, 2016
Dandelion ( Taraxacum officinale ) is a composite flower of the Asteraceae Family, with many individual flowers comprising the head.  It depends on both cross-pollination by insects and self-pollination.
*If no insects are present it can pollinate itself as the stigma grows upward through the anthers, and in this process acts to obtain pollen grains which stick to the style (  remember, stigma-style-ovary form the female parts while anthers-stamens form the male parts ).  The stigma then curls, as observed above, and can obtain pollen grains stuck to the style.
While self-pollination is acceptable, it is not preferred, since over time it will reduce the gene pool and threaten genetic diversity that is obtained and best supported by cross-pollination. 
Insects were observed with pollen grains on them from numerous different plant species ( as the insect world is beginning to awaken from a long winter slumber ).
A Beetle Species On Spring Phlox - March 24, 2016
A Beetle Species On Spring Phlox – March 24, 2016

The focus is on an active weather pattern that closes out March and opens April, with a trend ( as I have previously noted ) for colder than average conditions amid a general up-down temperature regime.

The potential for anomalous cold of more prolonged nature will be possible by the first week of April.  Stay tuned!

Have a great Good Friday.