041616 Forecast

My Forecast For Today ( April 14-16 )

Overnight Into Thursday Morning

High clouds.  Light winds becoming variable at 5-15 mph along middle to upper elevation mountain ridges.  Large vertical temperature spread with low-mid 30s in colder mountain valleys verses mid 40s to lower 50s on exposed middle to upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus.

Thursday Afternoon

Becoming mostly cloudy with a chance for scattered rain showers.  Light ENE-ESE winds generally less than 10 mph.  Mild with temperatures varying from the 50s at the upper elevations to the 60s to around 70 degrees in middle-lower elevations.

Thursday Night Into Friday Morning

Any scattered evening showers giving way to partly to mostly clear skies.  SE-SSE winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.  Temperatures mostly in the 40s ( a few 30s possible in valleys with calm winds into the morning ).

Friday Afternoon

Mostly sunny.  Mild.  Winds ESE-SE 5-10 mph, with higher gusts along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps varying from 50s in upper elevations to the upper 60s to lower-mid 70s in middle to lower elevations.

Friday Night Into Saturday Morning

Mostly clear.  Frost in mountain valleys.  Light ESE-SSE winds developing along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.  Temperatures varying from upper 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys to the 40s along exposed mid to upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.


Weather Discussion ( April 12-15 )

The return of beautiful blue skies Tuesday afternoon set the stage for a frosty cold night, especially in mountain valleys, with widespread 20s observed by Wednesday morning.

A MIN of 27 degrees was recorded in Clintwood with low-mid 20s felt amid colder valleys of the Norton to Coeburn area and in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif-Burkes Garden corridor.
Dogwood Blossom ( Cornus florida )
Dogwood Blossom ( Cornus florida ) In Cumberlands – April 12, 2016

An increase in high altitude clouds by afternoon hours of Wednesday was accompanied, for a change, by relatively light winds ( a welcomed change amid this windy spring ).

Large-flowered Trillium ( Trillium grandiflorum )
Large-flowered Trillium ( Trillium grandiflorum ) – April 13, 2016
Beautiful blooms of Trilliums are increasing but not yet at peak.
White Daffodil ( Narcissus spp. )
Macro Shot of White Daffodil ( Narcissus spp. ) – April 13, 2016

Temperatures as of 1:00 AM on Thursday had dropped into the upper 30s in Clintwood, heading toward a morning with low-mid 30s being more common in valleys ( verses the 20s observed on Wednesday AM ).  By contrast, air temps were still in the 50s on exposed middle elevation ridges-plateaus like at Lonesome Pine Airport in Wise ( 1 AM April 14 ).

NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast
NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast

If you receive any rainfall today then consider yourself lucky, as models are clearly indicating that it will be localized and scattered in nature.

Perhaps the best chances will be from the High Knob Massif southwest & west by later today into early Thursday evening.
GFS Model Total Rainfall Forecast
GFS Model Total Rainfall Forecast

A much drier than average spring pattern continues, which for now is good news for race fans heading to, or already at, Bristol to enjoy all the activities through coming days.

After today air will dry out once again with a notable drop in low-level dewpoints.  This will again set the stage for mountain valley frost to become widespread Friday Night into Saturday morning.

Have a great Thursday.