042816 Forecast

My New Forecast ( April 26-28 )

Showers & Thunderstorms Will Become Likely By Late Tuesday Into Tuesday Night.  Some Storms Could Be Strong To Locally Severe ( A Marginal Risk Has Been Issued By The Storm Prediction Center )

Overnight Into Tuesday Morning

Partly to mostly clear.  Winds SSW-SW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along middle elevation ridges-plateaus at elevations below 2700 feet.  Winds SW-WSW 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 ft.  Mild with temperatures varying from the 50s to lower 60s on exposed mountain ridges-plateaus to the 40s to lower 50s within mountain valleys.

Tuesday Afternoon

Partly to mostly cloudy.  Unseasonably warm.  Increasing humidity and haze.  A chance of showers & thunderstorms by mid-late afternoon.  Winds SSW-WSW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from 60s to lower 70s at upper elevations to the lower-middle 80s ( warmest at low elevations of the Russell Fork & Levisa Fork basins ).

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning

Showers & thunderstorms likely.  Some storms may be strong to locally severe.  Downpours are possible.  Winds becoming variable generally less than 10 mph outside of storms.  Winds WSW-W at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2500-3000 feet.  Mild with temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday Afternoon

Warm & humid.  A chance of showers & thunderstorms.  Downpours possible.  Winds SSW-SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the 60s at the highest elevations to the mid-upper 70s.

Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning

Partly to mostly cloudy.  Humid with areas of dense fog possible.  Scattered showers & thunderstorms.  Some Storms May Be Strong.  Downpours likely.  Winds SSW to W at 5-10 mph along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus.  Temperatures widespread in the 50s.

A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the entire region on Thursday.  Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for any possible watches and/or warnings that may be needed.


Weather Discussion ( April 24-28 )

Weather is never dull amid the mountains, or so it seems, with chilly conditions on Saturday giving way to coldness into Sunday morning ( April 24 ).  While the MIN reached a chilly 38 degrees in Clintwood, amid fog, there was frost in higher mountain valleys.

MIN temperatures dropped below freezing in colder valleys of the High Knob Massif to Burkes Garden corridor, with an official MIN of 31 degrees in Burkes Garden being representative of valleys at around the 3000 foot level.
Pink Lady's-slipper Orchid ( Cypripedium acaule )
Pink Lady’s-slipper Orchid ( Cypripedium acaule ) – April 24, 2016

Amid the trend of this spring, temperatures soared from 38 degrees up to 80 degrees in Clintwood by late Sunday before dropping back ( plunging ) to 42 degrees by Monday AM.

High Knob Massif Webcam
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise

Back to work Monday was simply gorgeous, and warm, but with a rather notable difference in temperatures between upslope locations in the High Knob Massif, Norton-Wise and Sandy Ridge communities on breezy-gusty SW winds verses the downslope locales ( much warmer ) from Pound-Grundy.

Nora 4 SSE - NWS Site In Middle Elevations
Nora 4 SSE – NWS Site In Middle Elevations – Elevation 2650 feet

Max temperatures on Monday afternoon varied from 60s above 3200 feet in the High Knob Massif to 73 degrees at the 2650 foot level of Nora 4 SSE to 80 degrees at the 1560 foot elevation of Clintwood 1 W.

The overnight hours of Tuesday is featuring a typical nocturnal inversion with 40s in cooler mountain valleys verses upper 50s to low 60s along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus   ( 47 degrees in Clintwood vs 63 degrees at LNP in Wise at 4:15 AM ).
Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions
Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions Up To 8 AM Wednesday

The focus now shifts to a stormy, much more active weather pattern with a major severe outbreak of thunderstorms and tornadoes across the nation’s heartland today into tonight.  A few strong-severe thunderstorms may also develop on a warm frontal boundary and move southeast into the west side of the Appalachians by late today into tonight.

Other showers & thunderstorms, of a more hit-miss nature, may develop amid the warm sector south of the warm front by late in the afternoon into this evening.  The most organized storms, with a possible MCS type cluster, will track along & south of the warm front and will bear close watching by tonight for locations from the Cumberland Mountains to the northwest & north.
NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast Up To
NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast Up To 8 AM Friday ( April 29 )

Downpours could produce locally heavy rainfall amounts between Tuesday Night and Thursday Night, with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms being possible.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for any possible watches or warnings that may be needed during the next 24-48 hours.