Partly to mostly clear. Areas of valley fog developing. Winds W-NW at 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, along middle elevation ridges-plateaus. Winds WNW to NW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures varying from the 40s to middle 50s ( coolest in mountain valleys along and north of the High Knob Massif & Tennessee Valley Divide ).
Friday Afternoon
Partly to mostly sunny ( a trend toward increasing high clouds later in day ). WNW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temps varying from the 60s in upper elevations to the middle 70s to lower 80s ( mid-upper 70s Norton-Wise ).
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Partly to mostly clear into the overnight, then increasing clouds toward morning. Winds becoming easterly at mostly less than 10 mph. Temperatures varying from the 40s in cooler mountain valleys to mid-upper 50s.
Saturday Afternoon
More humid with a chance of showers & thunderstorms. Winds SSE-SSW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temps varying from 60s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Showers & thunderstorms becoming likely. Some storms may be strong. Downpours possible. Winds becoming S-SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet. Winds SSW to WSW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Mild & humid. Temperatures in the 50s and 60s ( coolest at highest elevations ).
Showers & thunderstorms will remain possible through Sunday into Monday-Tuesday ( at times ). Some storms could be strong to locally severe into Sunday ( and again early next week ). Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for possible watches and/or warnings that may be needed.
Weather Discussion ( April 27-May 1 )
A welcomed array of showers & feisty thunderstorms brought welcomed rain to the mountain landscape during recent days, with general 0.50″ to 1.50″ amounts reported.
Fleabane Species ( Erigeron spp. ) After A Shower – April 27, 2016
Although April ( and Spring 2016 ) rainfall remains well below average, additional rounds of rain & thunderstorms will help to reduce deficits through coming days into early May.
Mating Crickets ( Gryllidae Family ) – April 27, 2016
All creatures great and small are beginning to get into the spring mode, with the mountain landscape currently amid its most rapid and explosive rebirth period ( April 15-May 15 ). By May 15 only the upper elevations, above 3000 feet, and cold air drainages will still have to complete green-up to full leaf maturity on trees.
Wild Azalea ( Rhododendron periclymenoides ) – April 27, 2016
A nice TGIF Friday will offer a break in showers-storms as somewhat lower dewpoint air makes conditions pleasant for the end of mid-spring ( May marking the beginning of late spring from a Meteorological perspective ).
NAM 12 KM Model Rainfall Forecast Up To 8 AM Monday – May 2, 2016
Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected for this weekend, with the NAM 12 KM Model showing potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts ( this is supported by the European Model which continues chances into Tuesday ).
As typical of convection, it will not rain all the time and heaviest rainfall amounts will tend to be hit-miss in nature with some places getting much more rain than other locations.
Storm Prediction Center DAY 2 Risk Regions
The current risk region for Saturday is placed west of the Appalachians by the Storm Prediction Center, with a better local risk for strong-severe thunderstorms expected along the mountains by Sunday. Stay tuned for updates.
European Ensembles MEAN 500 MB Height Anomalies Forecast – May 5
For all the green thumbs out there, a word of caution is that a period of much cooler air is looking increasingly likely by the middle to end of next week ( May 5-7 period ).
European Ensembles MEAN 850 MB TEMP Anomalies Forecast – May 5
It could be cold enough for frost or freezing conditions in higher mountain valleys, if not in other valleys, during this time. The good news, it remains 5-7 days out so changes can still occur that could skew this milder. Again, stay tuned.
