My Updated Forecast ( April 30-May 3 )

ALERT For Heavy Rainfall With Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Monday Afternoon Into Monday Night

*The Storm Prediction Center Has Issued A Severe Thunderstorm Watch Effective Until 10:00 PM Monday

In addition, due to heavy weekend rains the threat for rapid rises along streams and flooding of low lying, poor drainage locations needs to be respected.  Please turn around, don’t drown if encountering a water covered roadway.

 

Saturday Afternoon

Cloudy & cool with light rain & drizzle.  Thunder possible, especially south to southeast of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide.  Northerly winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus.  Temps in the 50s to mid 60s along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide, with 70s to lower 80s to the south and southeast.

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

Showers & thunderstorms becoming likely.  Some storms may be strong.  Downpours possible.  Winds becoming SSE to SSW at 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  Winds SSW to SW at 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures mainly in the 50s and 60s ( coolest at highest elevations ).

Sunday Afternoon

A chance of hit-miss showers & thunderstorms.  Winds SSW-SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from 60s across upper elevations to the 70s to around 80 degrees ( warmest at lower elevations ).

Sunday Night Into Monday

A chance of showers.  Thunder possible.  Winds SSW to SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges and plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds SW-WSW 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temps in the 50s to lower 60s.

Monday Afternoon

Mild & humid with showers & thunderstorms developing.  Some storms may be strong to severe with torrential rain and strong winds-hail.  Winds SSW to SW 5-10 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the 60s across upper elevations to the mid-upper 70s in lower elevations.

Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning

Showers & thunderstorms.  Rainfall may be heavy at times.  Thunderstorms may be strong to severe during the evening.  Winds shifting WNW-NNW at 5-15 mph into the overnight and morning.  Temperatures dropping into the 40s to mid-upper 50s ( coolest along high mountain crestlines ).

 

Weather Discussion ( April 30-May 3 )

An update on this Monday ( May 2 ) is for the threat of strong-severe thunderstorm development and heavy rainfall, especially for counties along and west of the Virginia-Kentucky stateline & Cumberland Mountains.

Rainfall totals reached 1.00″ to 2.00″ in many places along the Virginia-Kentucky border during the weekend, with training storms having already developed over the foothills of eastern Kentucky on this Monday afternoon.  An eastward propagation during the afternoon will need to be closely followed.

Brief showers already observed Monday in Clintwood have been pounding with large drops and fast fall rates ( often a signal that the atmosphere is primed for torrential rainfall production ).

Severe thunderstorms just brushed the Clintwood area late Sunday, with Summer Salyers reporting dime size hail and moderate rainfall north of town in the Skeetrock community.  Very large hail fell along portions of Pine Mountain into the Hurley area of Buchanan County.

Rainfall Totals Observed May 1 to 9:00 AM on May 2

Clintwood 1 W: 1.35″
( 3.48″ since April 1 )

Upper Norton Reservoir: 1.33″
( 6.69″ since April 1 )

City of Norton Water Plant: 1.15″
( 4.17″ since April 1 )

Coeburn Water Treatment Plant: 1.12″
( 4.69″ since April 1 )

The month of April was atypically dry.  During only 24-36 hours, rainfall at the beginning of May was 63% as much in Clintwood, one of the drier locations, as observed during all of April.

An update on this Saturday is to account for a northerly wind shift into the Cumberland Mountains that has kept temperatures in the 50s ( highest elevations ) and 60s to generate a large north-south difference across the region.

Saturday PM temperatures reached 80 degrees or higher in parts of the Tennessee Valley verses only 50s above 3000 feet across the High Knob Massif, with low-mid 60s in Norton-Wise & Clintwood amid development of light rain and drizzle.

The best chance for any thunder through the remainder of this afternoon will be south & southeast of the Cumberland Mountains, before a wind shift back toward the SSE-SSW will allow more unstable air to come northward tonight into Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center maintains a marginal risk for severe thunderstorm development through Sunday.

The strongest storms this afternoon remain far to the south over the Dixie States and Gulf Coast.

Forecast model runs today are cranking out heavy rainfall amounts, but timing and placement of heaviest rains does remain in question.

The NAM Model group is forecasting the heaviest rains to develop tonight into Sunday morning.

The Saturday AM run of the European Model is most bullish with a surge of heavy rain and storms by late Monday into Tuesday, with the GFS Model somewhat in the middle but generally closer to the NAM with heaviest amounts being predicted for tonight into Sunday.

The RLX NWSFO ( Charleston, WV ) has issued a Flood Watch for most of their coverage area through Sunday.

Clearly, models are showing the potential for heavy rainfall but timing and placement differences are raising questions as to when and where this will occur.  This continues to be one of the driest spring’s on record, which also remains a factor in any heavy rain forecasts.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for any additional watches and/or warnings that may be needed through the next few days.