090217 Long-Range Race Trend

Long-Range Preliminary Outlook

The High Knob Hellbender 10K and Cloudsplitter 100 races remain more than a month away at the time of this initial outlook.  So this certainly must be considered preliminary.

European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 5-9

Forecast’s such as this current 5 to 9 day outlook from the 51-Member European Ensembles are extended outward through time to generate the European Weeklies.

European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 850 MB Temp Anomalies: Days 5-9

I am not allowed to actually show the graphics of the weeklies, but they are currently forecasting a cooler than average temperature trend through September into early October, with near to above average precipitation.

Climate Prediction Center Outlooks

The Climate Prediction Center outlooks for September and Autumn 2017 are similar, predicting a cooler than average September followed by warming to above average to push mean fall temperatures above average.

Many changes begin occurring in the atmosphere during autumn, as the seasonal transition from summer toward winter begins in the Northern Hemisphere, making any given forecast uncertain for extended periods of time.  Check back for later updates.

As race time gets closer a forecast designed specifically for the three-dimensional nature of the race courses, which are run across 2000-3000 vertical feet of elevation change, will be produced that accounts for the complex terrain and microclimatology of the High Knob Massif.