111116 Forecast

Mountain Area Forecast ( Nov 9-11 )

***A NO BURN BAN Remains In Effect

Overnight Into Wednesday Morning

Light rain & showers.  Turning chilly.  Winds shifting NW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts ( especially along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus ).  Areas of fog, with dense fog ( low cloud bases ) developing above 3000 feet.  Temperatures by morning dropping into the upper 30s to upper 40s  ( coldest at highest elevations ).

Wednesday Afternoon

Blustery & cold.  Low cloud bases.  Chance of drizzle at lower elevations and mix or flurries at highest elevations.  Winds NW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures holding nearly steady or falling through the 40s in lower-middle elevations, and through the 30s in upper elevations, amid locations along and north-northwest of the High Knob Massif & Tennessee Valley Divide ( some breaks possible within the stratocumulus overcast lee of mountains into river valleys of the Clinch, Powell, and Holston ).  Wind chills in the 30s to low 40s in mid-elevations, below 3000 feet, and in the 20s to low 30s above 3000 feet.

Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning

Cloudy & chilly.  NW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus.   Low cloud bases with light riming at highest elevations.  Temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to the upper 30s  ( coldest at highest elevations ).  Wind chills in the 10s & 20s at highest elevations.  Some cloud breaks possible leeward of mountains.

Thursday Afternoon

Sunny.  Seasonally cool.  Winds becoming WNW-W at mostly less than 10 mph outside of gustier high ridges.  Temperatures varying from upper 40s to lower 50s in  upper elevations to the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

Thursday Night Into Friday Morning

Clear.  Large vertical temperature spread between colder valleys and gusty mountain ridges.  Winds SW to WNW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures varying from low-mid 20s amid mountain valleys ( colder in any high valleys that can keep calm winds ) to the mid-upper 30s.  Wind chill factors in the 20s along gusty mountain ridges.


Weather Discussion ( Colder Air )

A blustery, cold day for early November is expected to be felt Wednesday behind a cold front.  Low clouds and wind chills will be factors along the upslope side of mountains, especially along and north-northwest of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide.

Forest Fire Burning In Harlan County Kentucky
Looking West Into Coalfields from High Knob Massif ( Forest Fire in Harlan County )
Reference Late Autumn 2016 In The High Knob Massif for more photographs from early November.
Widespread smoke which overspread the region from many forest fires burning across the southern Appalachians, from Kentucky and Tennessee into Georgia and western North Carolina, will be pushed back toward the south and southeast ( smoke from fires northwest of the area could continue to be smelt ) Thursday.

A changing flow pattern will mean more cold shots through coming weeks toward Thanksgiving, with eventually the chance for more significant precipitation.

NAM 12 KM Model Mean Sea Level Pressure & Wind Streamlines
NAM 12 KM Model Mean Sea Level Pressure & Wind Streamlines

A second cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air into the mountain region by this weekend, with all locales having the potential for freezing & sub-freezing air ( even the mid-elevation thermal belt slopes & ridges ).