053117 Forecast

My Area Forecast ( May 31-June 2 )

Overnight Into Wednesday Morning

Partly to mostly cloudy.  Small chance of a shower or sprinkle.  Areas of valley fog at lower elevations.  Light and variable winds.  Temperatures varying from the upper 40s to lower 50s in high mountain valleys to the mid-upper 50s.

Wednesday Afternoon

A chance of showers & thunderstorms.  Local downpours.  Winds SW-W at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temps varying from 60s upper elevations to the lower-middle 70s.

Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning

A chance of showers & thunderstorms.  Local downpours possible.  Winds SW-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures mostly in the 50s.

Thursday Afternoon

Partly to mostly cloudy.  Chance of a hit-miss shower or thunderstorm, especially along and south of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide.  Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from 60s at upper elevations to the mid-upper 70s.

Thursday Night Into Friday Morning

Partly to mostly cloudy.  Winds becoming light.  Seasonally cool with temperatures varying from 40s to lower 50s in the colder mountain valleys to the middle-upper 50s.  Areas of fog at lower elevations.

*More humid air will feature numerous showers and downpours in thunderstorms during Saturday and Sunday ( June 3-4 ).  Some of the thunderstorms could become strong to locally severe.


Weather Discussion ( SOS Into June )

Although any dry hours this week will be enjoyed, along with brief reductions in humidity, a return of more humid conditions into this weekend means that showers and downpours in thunderstorms will also be roaming the mountain landscape.

Vegetation Flourishes Amid Spring 2017 Wetness – Big Cherry Lake ( May 28 )

Spring 2017 has been wet across the region, with the second month in a row producing a general 8.00″ to 10.00″ of rain within the High Knob Massif ( after 5.00-7.00″ in March ).

May 1-30 Rainfall Totals

City of Norton

Clintwood 1 W

*Big Cherry Dam

*The past 6 months have generated a general 47.00″ to 56.00″ of total precipitation in the High Knob Massif area ( around 52.00″ estimated on average at upper elevations ).  This translates to a general 8.00″ to 9.00″+ per month for the past six months.

There are some model signs that a more prolonged break in this very wet pattern could occur but, and this is a big but, such a break remains uncertain.  It might actually become more likely if a tropical or a tropical-like system develops far to the south and tracks across Florida and off into the western Atlantic Ocean.

Such a track could ideally place the Mountain Empire under a subsidence, or sinking air, regime around the periphery of the system ( especially if it were to strengthen a little ).

European Model Forecast 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 1-5

A break is uncertain since the European Ensemble MEAN  continues to show a tendency toward showers & storms along and just west of the Appalachians through the next couple of weeks.

European Model Forecast 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 6-10
The latest European Model is going with a synoptic-scale sinking air regime centered over Canada, but not along the Appalachians.

Perhaps the biggest factor, as often is the case at this time of year, is soil moisture with significant evapotranspiration to supply latent energy for formation of more showers and thunderstorms.  A wet feedback can be hard to overcome at this time of year, and would likely require a synoptic-scale forcing mechanism ( to generate significant subsidence ).