Mountain Area Forecast ( Aug 28-30 )
An increasing chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms is being watched for mid-late week into this weekend as moisture from Harvey begins to finally lift north and east.
Overnight Into Monday Morning
High cloudiness. Areas of valley fog. Winds SSE-S at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from low-mid 50s in cooler mountain valleys and highest ridges to the lower 60s.
Remainder of Monday Afternoon
Cloudy ( mid-high clouds ). Small chance of showers, mainly west of the mountains in SE Kentucky. Light ESE-SSE winds generally less than 10 mph. Temps varying from the lower 60s within upper elevations to the lower 70s.
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
Mostly cloudy. Small chance of showers, especially to the southeast toward Mount Rogers-Whitetop. Areas of river valley fog. Winds E-SE at 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from the upper 40s to low 50s at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif to the mid-upper 50s.
Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of hit-miss showers and thunderstorms. Light winds. Temps varying from low-mid 60s in upper elevations to the low-mid 70s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of valley fog. Light winds. Temperatures in the 50s to around 60 degrees, except the upper 40s to low 50s within colder high valleys at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif.
Partly to mostly cloudy. More humid. A chance for showers and thunderstorms by mid-late afternoon into the evening. Winds generally light and variable. Temperatures varying from mid-upper 60s at upper elevations to the mid-upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
Weather Discussion ( In The Middle )
Monday Evening Update
A solid mid-high altitude overcast has dominated Monday with abundant clouds streaming northeast from tropical storm Harvey. This held temperatures in the 60s and 70s, varying from lower 60s in the High Knob Massif to the low 70s in Clintwood ( 71.7 degree official maximum ).
This update continues to highlight low rain chances over the mountains tonight, with a lesser chance for showers even toward the Blue Ridge as potential Irma along the Atlantic Coast struggles to develop within wind shear generated by Harvey and a polar jet stream.
Based upon late Monday evening readings, overnight temperatures in the high country of the High Knob Massif have been dropped a little from my previous forecast to account for lowering dewpoints and some possible over-night cloud breaks ( and decreasing predawn winds ).
Humidity + some instability will then offer a chance for localized shower-thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon across the Cumberland Mountains.
Moisture related to the remnants of Harvey may begin to impact the mountain region by later Wednesday into the Thursday-Friday-Saturday period, with rainfall amounts and details yet to be determined.
Moisture from Harvey is looking increasingly like it will have some impact upon the area by late week-this weekend, per the latest ensemble means.
While it has been a wet August in the mountains, with 7.00″ to 9.00″ widespread within the High Knob Massif – City of Norton and Big Stone Gap Water Plant area – just imagine that 3 to 4 times this much has fallen in the past few days over the area centered on Houston, Texas.