091417 Forecast

Mountain Area Forecast ( Sep 14-16 )

Low clouds & widespread dense fog will dominate upper elevations of the High Knob Massif-Black Mountain area into Thursday.  Areas of dense fog will also be possible in middle elevation gaps, such as Little Stone Mountain Gap along U.S. 23 between the City of Norton & Big Stone Gap.

Overnight Into Thursday Morning

Low clouds with occasional showers.  Dense fog widespread at upper elevations and locally in middle elevations along and southwest of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide ( e.g., near Powell Valley Overlook ).  SW winds 6-18 mph, with gusts 20 to 30 mph, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus.  Temperatures varying from upper 40s to the upper 50s ( coolest at highest elevations where wind chills will be 40-45 degrees in gusts ).

Thursday Afternoon

Cloudy.  A chance of showers.  Dense fog ( low clouds ) at upper elevations.  SSW-WSW winds 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts on mountain ridges.  Temperatures varying from mid-upper 50s to mid-upper 60s ( coolest within the highest elevations ).

Thursday Night Into Friday Morning

Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers.  Low clouds continuing at high elevations.  Winds becoming light & variable.  Temps varying from upper 40s to lower 50s in upper elevations to the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.  Areas of dense fog.

Friday Afternoon

Becoming partly sunny.  Pleasant.  Light winds.  Temps varying from low-mid 60s in upper elevations to the lower to middle 70s.

Friday Night Into Saturday Morning

Mostly clear.  Light winds.  Large vertical temp spread developing between mountain ridges & valleys.  Temps varying from low-mid 40s in colder mountain valleys to upper 50s to lower 60s on exposed ridges.  Areas of dense valley fog ( especially in lower elevations ).


Weather Discussion ( Gloomy )

Another day of gloomy, damp conditions with a chance of showers is featured before a much improved TGIF arrives.

High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise

Conditions deteriorated late Wednesday as low clouds and rain showers returned with the decaying remnants of Irma.

Lonesome Pine Airport In Wise
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise

Conditions continue to be chilly, especially in the high country where afternoon temperatures struggled to break 60 degrees at the summit level of the High Knob Massif prior to falling to around 50 degrees with rain showers.

*Strong SW winds gusting over 30 mph at times made it feel even cooler.  This was in contrast to afternoon temps that reached into the lower 70s in Clintwood on a downsloping SW flow.
Black Mountain Mesonet

A notable improvement in conditions will be enjoyed Friday into this weekend.  This marks a shift in the pattern toward above average temperatures, especially by day, which looks to dominate next week.

European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 6-10

A flip in the upper air pattern across North America, with eastern USA troughing being replacing by ridging as a deep trough digs into the western USA ( above ) will be associated with a shift toward above average temperatures ( below ).

European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomalies: Days 6-10

A bad aspect of such a pattern will be the potential for more tropical threats to the USA during the next week to 10 days.