092817 Forecast

My Forecast ( September 28-October 1 )

ALERT For Cold Night-time Conditions In Mountain Valleys, With Frost And Local Freezing Conditions By Sunday & Monday Mornings ( October 1-2 ).

While foggy river valleys and exposed mountain ridges-plateaus will remain well above freezing, a very dry air mass + clear skies sets the stage for a large vertical temperature difference to form during coming days.  Coldest valleys in higher elevations may dip into the 30s by Friday and/or Saturday mornings, but the coldest and most widespread chill is expected Sunday & Monday mornings when 30s will become widespread in mountain valleys ( with 20s in coldest valleys of the High Knob Massif-Burkes Garden areas ).  

Overnight Into Thursday Morning

Becoming partly to mostly cloudy by morning.  Cloud bases dropping onto highest mountain ridges.  NNW-NNE winds at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Areas of dense river valley fog.  Temps varying from upper 40s to lower 50s in cooler mountain valleys to the low-mid 60s.

Thursday Morning Through The Afternoon

Mostly cloudy.  Turning cooler.  Small chance of showers or sprinkles.  NNW to N winds 5 to 10 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temps varying from lower 60s in upper elevations to the upper 60s to lower 70s, dropping by mid-late afternoon into the 50s at upper elevations and the lower-middle 60s at elevations of Norton-Wise.

Thursday Night Into Friday Morning

Becoming partly to mostly clear.  N-NNE winds 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Chilly.  Temperatures dropping into the lower 40s to lower 50s, except 30s in coldest mountain valleys ( above 2500-3000 feet ) in the Cumberland-Allegheny mountains.

Friday Afternoon

Partly to mostly sunny ( deep blue skies ).  NNW-N winds at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from mid-upper 50s in upper elevations to the mid 60s to around 70 degrees ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).

Friday Night Into Saturday Morning

Partly cloudy.  Chilly.  NNW-NNE winds 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, on middle-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures varying from 30s in colder mountain valleys to the lower 40s to around 50 degrees.  Wind chills in the upper 30s to low 40s along high ridges.

Saturday Afternoon

Sunny.  Deep blue skies.  Cool.  NNE-NE winds 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from lower to middle 50s in upper elevations to the middle-upper 60s.

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

Clear.  Cold.  Winds becoming SE at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps varying from upper 20s to lower 30s in coldest mountain valleys to the mid-upper 40s on exposed ridges.

A frontal boundary will be crossing the mountains during Friday Night into Saturday Morning, with any initial clouds expected to give way to deep blue skies during Saturday.

High Knob Naturalist Rally Forecast – Updated
Saturday – September 30

Partly cloudy to clear morning conditions are expected with NNE winds at 5-15 mph ( the higher wind speeds being at the High Knob Lookout ).  Morning temperatures in the low-mid 40s will rise into the lower-middle 50s by afternoon.

9:00 AM at High Knob Lookout – Mostly Sunny.  NNE to NE winds at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures in the middle 40s.  Wind chills in the 30s to lower 40s.

3:00 PM at High Knob Lake – Sunny.  Gorgeous blue skies.  NNE winds 5-10 mph.  Max temp 56-58 degrees at 2:30 to 3:00 PM, dropping quickly after 4:30 to 5:00 PM.


Weather Discussion ( Autumn Taste )

A true taste of autumn will be felt by Friday into Saturday, just in time for the 11th Annual High Knob Naturalist Rally.

Early Autumn at High Knob Lake Recreation Area – September 23, 2017

The High Knob Naturalist Rally is sponsored by The Clinch Coalition.  Check this for an events schedule.

*As of September 29 autumn color was not as good as it was on September 23, with many early changing leaves having fallen.  Chilly nights upcoming will have to stimulate a new wave of changes in an autumn that has been unusual with strong early color changes fading amid recent warm, dry days.
This photograph taken on September 16 illustrates the strong early color changes in the high country, looking across the lofty High Knob Lake Basin.  Today ( September 29 ) nearly all the trees seen below with color are bare, with leaves having fallen.
Looking Across High Knob Lake Basin – September 16, 2017
Ten consecutive days, from September 19-28, featured MAX temperatures between 70 and 76 degrees at High Knob Lake.  Nearly all the 3.50″ to 4.00″ of September rainfall fell during September 1-15 ( recent dryness also aiding the leaf drop ).

High Knob Lake
Elevation 3527 feet

( September 1-29 Temperatures )

Average Daily MAX: 66.6 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 51.2 degrees
MEAN: 58.9 degrees
Highest Temperature: 76 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 41 degrees

Afternoon maximum temperatures on September 29 felt like autumn, varying from around 60 degrees in cooler places of the High Knob Massif to 71 degrees in Clintwood.