The first of two significant blasts of cold air will begin to push into the Appalachians late Friday into Friday night, with rain giving way to a chance of flurries and snow showers ( especially along the upslope side of the mountains on WNW-NW air flow trajectories ).
Unseasonably cold air is expected during Saturday into Sunday morning as skies clear, with deep blue, polar-arctic air as dewpoints tumble.
Single digit to below zero wind chills will develop at highest elevations later Friday night into Saturday morning. Caution is advised for anyone hunting or planning to be outdoors for any length of time.
This sets the stage for near record to record level cold into Sunday morning, especially in mountain valleys, with temperatures in the 10s and 20s ( rising through the 20s to near 30 degrees F at highest elevations to contrast with the potential of single digits in upper elevation mountain valleys ).
*Coldest single digit temperatures will be possible in colder valleys from the High Knob Massif to Burkes Garden within southwestern Virginia. Note these are actual air temps and not wind chills (with cold air drainage and near calm wind).
Another significant weather system is expected next week, with a much better potential for accumulating snow as an even colder blast of air strikes by later Tuesday into Wednesday AM ( November 13-14 ).
A zonal continental flow field is expected to develop, with much milder conditions, later next week into the weekend of November 17-18.
Mountain Area Forecast
Friday Morning Into The Afternoon
Significant rain develops Friday with a temperature fall beginning during mid-late afternoon as winds shift WNW-NW at 10-20 mph.
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Sleet, flurries and snow showers develop Friday night into Saturday morning. Accumulations of a dusting up to 1″ will be possible ( especially upper elevations ). Little to nothing along lee side of mountains.
Gusty WNW-NW winds at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts will generate nasty wind chills. Temperatures fall into mid-upper 10s to the mid-upper 20s ( coldest at highest elevations ), with wind chills varying from 10s to lower 20s below 3000 feet to the single digits and 10s at elevations above 3000 feet ( around or below 0 degrees in gusts on highest peaks ).
Rime formation expected at elevations above 3000 to 3300 feet as temperatures fall below freezing amid orographic clouds.
Saturday Morning Through The Afternoon
Saturday morning clouds and any flurries give way to clearing, with deep blue skies. Unseasonably cold for early November with temperatures varying from 20s at upper elevations to the low-mid 30s (20-25 degree max temperatures at highest elevations).
NW-N winds at 5-15 mph will produce wind chills in the 10s & 20s, to near 30 degrees at lower elevations, except 0 to 10 degrees in gusts during the morning at highest elevations. Milder conditions expected into lower elevations of the Clinch, Powell, and Holston valleys on downslope flow.
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Expect mostly clear and unseasonably cold conditions Saturday night into Sunday morning. A large vertical temperature spread is expected to develop between exposed ridges-plateaus and bitter valleys. Min temps will vary from 10s in valleys ( single digits likely in coldest valleys at upper elevations ) to slowly rising readings through the 20s to around 30 degrees at highest elevations by Sunday AM.
Weather Discussion (Early Winter)
Friday Afternoon Update
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Low clouds bases, obscuring elevations above 2800 to 3000 feet, marks the beginning of a significant temperature drop through Friday night into Saturday morning.
Although some flurries and snow showers will develop, the main story will be the cold as wind chills fall to dangerous levels for those unprepared for this early blast of winter. This will be especially true for those living and traveling across middle-upper elevations above 2000-3000 feet.
Previous Discussion
A early winter weather pattern will dominate the mountain landscape through coming days, with only a brief break in between these first two blasts of early season polar-arctic air.
Looking SE Across The Crest of the High Knob Massif – November 3, 2018
More and more trees will become bare in coming days, with peaks observed during October 15-25 above 3000 feet and during October 25-November 5 at elevations below 3000-3200 feet ( unusually late ).
Lower North Slopes of High Knob Massif on November 3, 2018
The first accumulating snow and rime was featured into early hours of November 3.
Rime Coated Cow Parsnip At Upper Elevations – High Knob – November 3
