My New Forecast ( May 10-12 )
Updated At 2:00 AM Wednesday – May 11
ALERT For Downpours Of Heavy Rain During The Predawn-Early Morning Hours Of Wednesday
The Storm Prediction Center Has A Marginal Risk Of Severe Thunderstorms Across The Entire Region For Wednesday and Thursday
An Upgrade To A Higher Level Of Risk Will Be Possible For Portions Of The Region. Stay Tuned For Updates.
Overnight Into Tuesday Morning
Mostly cloudy. Mild. Chance of a rain shower. SSE-SSW winds 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, along mountain ridges & plateaus below 2700 feet. SSW-SW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures widespread in the 50s to low-mid 60s.
Partly-mostly cloudy. Chance of showers & thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to locally severe, especially late. S to SW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temps varying from 60s in upper elevations to mid-upper 70s.
Overnight Into Wednesday Morning
Showers & thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to locally severe. Downpours of heavy rainfall likely. SSW-SW winds 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet. SW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Mild with temperatures in the 50s to lower-middle 60s.
At least a marginal risk for strong to locally severe thunderstorms will continue Wednesday and Thursday, amid many dry hours. Remain alert for the potential of strong-severe thunderstorm development.
Warm & humid. A chance of showers & thunderstorms. Winds SW-W at 5-15 mph. Temperatures varying from the 60s to around 70 degrees in upper elevations to the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
A chance of showers & thunderstorms. Winds SW-WSW 5-15 mph along mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet. WSW to WNW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures in the 50s to low-mid 60s.
A chance of showers & thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to locally severe. Warm & humid. S-SW winds mainly under 10 mph ( outside of storms ). Temperatures varying from upper 60s to lower 70s in upper elevations to the upper 70s to lower 80s ( warmest at lower elevations in the Russell Fork-Levisa Fork basins ).
Weather Discussion ( May 8-12 )
Tuesday Evening Update
A very active afternoon-early evening to the west of the mountains has resulted in Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 163 being issued up to the Virginia-Kentucky line.
A line of thunderstorms is likely to impact counties along the Virginia-Kentucky border after midnight, except for northern portions of Dickenson-Buchanan counties where severe thunderstorms are possible earlier.
Local development could occur in advance of such storms, as recently seen along and northeast of Pine Mountain ( with local development trying to get started in the High Knob Massif area ).
A total of 1.11″ of rain was recorded at the Upper Norton Reservoir with downpours associated with late evening thunderstorms that moved northeast across Powell Valley into the High Knob Massif during late Tuesday evening.
As of 2:00 AM Wednesday a non-severe line of thunderstorms, with heavy rainfall, was moving east across SE Kentucky and will impact the Cumberland Mountains overnight into Wednesday AM. Although downpours of heavy rainfall and lightning will remain most prominent, kinks ( bows ) in the approaching line continue to suggest localized strong-gusty winds will remain possible.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for possible additional watches and/or warnings which may be needed through Wednesday-Thursday.