Cloudy with showers into the overnight, then decreasing. Areas of fog, especially at highest elevations. SW winds becoming W-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus. Temperatures in the 40s to lower-middle 50s ( wind chill factors in the 30s at highest elevations ).
*Fog will become more widespread in nature should skies clear before sunrise.
Mid-Morning Through This Afternoon
Morning clouds & any fog giving way to sunny skies. Pleasant. Southerly winds at generally less than 10 mph. Temperatures varying from lower 60s to low-mid 70s, coolest at the highest elevations.
Tonight Into Wednesday Morning
Mostly clear in the evening with increasing clouds by morning. Becoming windy on mountain ridges-plateaus. Winds becoming SSW-SW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet. SW-WSW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps in the 50s to lower 60s, except dropping into the 40s to low 50s in mountain valleys that remain sheltered from gusty winds.
Air will turn colder by Friday, with a late season winter storm potential being monitored for Palm Sunday weekend-Monday during the March 19-21 period. Stay tuned for later updates.
Weather Discussion ( March 13-15 )
That March is a fickle weather month is no surprise, with some of the greatest storm events on record being observed during this month. From great blizzards ( March 1942 and March 1993 ) to destructive floods ( March 2002 ) and severe thunderstorms ( March 2012 ), this month can be amazing.
*It was 23 years ago today that the mountain area was just starting to dig out from Superstorm 1993. Snowfall totals reached 30″ in Wise, 34″ in Clintwood, and 46″ to 58″ amid upper elevations of the High Knob Massif ( snow drifts of up to 20-25 feet ).
Quarter Moon Through Budding Red Maple – March 13, 2016
So it should be no real surprise that this week begins with rain showers & thunderstorms, amid unseasonable warmth, and could end with cold air and snowflakes ( details yet to be worked out, but that is the clear trend on current runs ).
Yellow Trout Lily ( Erythronium spp. ) Open During Day
Native species, such as our ephemeral wildflower beauties, are adapted for such changes and even for those which can be significant between day and night ( Bloodroot, which has not yet bloomed, curls up as protection against cold nights ).
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Showers, hit-miss thunderstorms with downpours and local hail, and beautiful cloud formations were all part of changing weather conditions observed during Monday ( March 14 ).
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
More changes are ahead this week as beautiful conditions today give way to increasing winds tonight ahead of the next system featuring a deep low over the Great Lakes.
European Model Mean Sea Level Pressure Forecast – 8 AM March 16, 2016
It is the late week period that will be drawing the most attention as low pressure moves across the Gulf and up along the Atlantic Coast. Track & intensity are yet to be determined, but the Monday MEAN of the 51-Member European Ensembles show an “interesting” potential.
European Ensemble MEAN Forecast Track From 12z Monday Run ( March 14 )
Despite unseasonable warmth in recent days, there will be plenty of cold air pouring in by the Palm Sunday Weekend when temperatures in the southern Appalachians could be approaching 20 degrees ( F ) below average for mid-March.
European Ensembles MEAN 850 MB TEMP Anomalies Forecast – 8 AM March 21
