Any thunderstorms which may develop this weekend could possess heavy rainfall ( and always dangerous lightning ).
Saturday Morning To Afternoon
Continued mild with an abundance of clouds will be the main weather theme into today. Patchy areas of fog will remain possible overnight, with widespread temperatures in the middle 40s to middle 50s ( coolest in valleys along & north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide ).
*A weak boundary pushed across the area with light showers and sprinkles during Friday. This allowed cooler air to bank up along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide, with areas of fog at times, verses locations to the south ( still the entire region remained much warmer than average for March ).
While there will be a chance of afternoon showers, with local thunder if conditions become unstable enough, the day will feature many dry hours in most locations. Temps will warm into the 60s and 70s, varying from around 60 degrees at the High Knob Lookout to mid-upper 70s in warmer locations ( especially in main river valleys ). Expect light & southerly winds.
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
*Remember to SPRING FORWARD & Set Time Ahead 1-Hour
Cloudy & mild conditions continue with an increasing chance for showers, and possible thunder, during the predawn to post-sunrise period on Sunday. Winds will increase and be SSE-SW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps will remain unseasonably warm with widespread readings in the 50s to middle 60s ( coolest at highest elevations ). Expect areas of fog to be possible.
Sunday Afternoon
The chance for showers, with possible thunder, continues into the afternoon. Mild conditions do as well with temps in the 60s to around 70 degrees for most places. Expect temps in the 50s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif. Winds will be S-SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.
Sunday Night Into Monday
The best chance for more significant rain, with possible thunder, will likely develop Monday. Meanwhile, a break will become likely after any Sunday PM-evening activity wanes. Expect gusty SSW-SW winds of 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, across mid-upper elevation ridges-plateaus during Sunday Night into Monday AM ( especially on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges ). Areas of fog will be possible in valleys. Temps will be widespread in the 50s, with 40s in cooler mountain valleys.
Updated: 2:00 AM Monday ( March 14, 2016 )
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today, with the main threat being the potential for wind damage from the stronger storms.
Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions For MondayStorm Prediction Center Discussion
The HRRR Model future Doppler shows showers and storms overspreading southwestern Virginia and NE Tennessee this afternoon. Some of these could be strong to locally severe.
HRRR Model Future Doppler Forecast At 2:00 PM Monday – March 14, 2016
The HRRR Model is timing activity to overspread southwest Virginia and northeastern Tennessee between 2 to 4 PM.
This timing could, of course, vary a little, with the main idea being that showers and thunderstorms will be developing this afternoon across the Mountain Empire.
HRRR Model Future Doppler Forecast At 4:00 PM Monday – March 14, 2016
Weather Discussion ( March 11-13 )
Although a weak boundary pushed across the mountains during Friday, with abundant low clouds ( dense fog amid upper elevations of the High Knob Massif ) and a few light showers and sprinkles, temperatures remained above the average for this time of year ( coolest along-north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide ).
Nora 4 SSE – Official NWS Station In Middle Elevations
PM temperatures varied from low-mid 50s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif to upper 50s to lower 60s in Norton-Wise and Clintwood ( 62.6 degrees being the official PM MAX in Clintwood ).
Reflections In Rain Drops On A Spider Web Near Forest Floor
While my goal was to capture some more shots of Yellow Trout Lilies, as it ended up I found few blooms since it appeared that White-tailed Deer had been eating them about as fast as they emerged ( many lily leaves but no nice blooms ).
I found many more rain drops dangling amid spider webs near the forest floor than Lily blooms, thus the above photograph which is focused upon reflections of leaves and trees in the drops.
Sphagnum Moss Soaking Up The Moisture
A few other scenes of interest.
Polypore Fungi On A Dead Log ( The Polypore Overwintered On The Log )
The weather focus through this weekend remains on unseasonably warm air with a chance for some rain showers at times, and possible thunder if it becomes unstable enough. The European 9 KM Model continues showing the bulk of the most widespread activity remaining west of the mountains this weekend.
*As I noted in my 031116 Forecast discussion, a key factor will be the amount of instability which can develop. Rain and especially thunderstorms will remain more limited if the instability does not increase enough to support it ( periods of sunshine would help the atmosphere to become more unstable and increase activity ).
NAM 4 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast To 7 AM Monday – March 14, 2016
The above is what the high-resolution NAM 4 KM Model is trying to show, with locally heavy rainfall and storms amid a region with much lighter amounts along the mountains. Placement of the heaviest rains, of course, being a model guess, with the displayed pattern being most important as it shows hit-miss convection with downpours.
European 9 KM Model 500 MB Height Anomalies Forecast – 8 PM March 14
A relatively weak disturbance will be moving across the area on Monday, with a stronger system expected by the middle of next week as the flow pattern begins to turn much cooler ( and eventually cold ).
European 9 KM Model 500 MB Height Anomalies Forecast – 8 PM March 16
