042118 Forecast

Mountain Area Forecast ( April 21-23 )

Overnight Into Saturday Morning

Mostly clear ( high clouds ) and cold.  Large vertical temperature difference between colder mountain valleys & exposed middle-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.  Variable winds generally less than 10 mph on ridges.  Calm valley winds.  Temperatures varying from low-mid 20s in the colder valleys to the mid-upper 30s to near 40 degrees on exposed mountain ridges.

Saturday Afternoon

Partly-mostly sunny with high clouds.  Light winds.  Temps varying from the upper 50s to low 60s at upper elevations to the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

High clouds.  Large vertical temperature spread developing between sheltered valleys and exposed mountain ridges and plateaus.  Winds SSE-SSW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, on exposed mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.  Temperatures varying from upper 20s to mid 30s in valleys to the mid-upper 40s on exposed mountain ridges.

Sunday Afternoon

Becoming mostly cloudy.  Small chance of a rain shower.  Seasonally cool.  SE-S winds 5-15 mph with some higher gusts on mountain ridges.  Temperatures varying from the lower 50s to the lower-mid 60s ( coolest highest elevations.

Sunday Night Into Monday Morning

Cloudy & windy.  Chance of rain showers by morning.  SE-SSE winds 10-25 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures mainly in the 40s to around 50 degrees ( falling to near 40 degrees at highest elevations ).

 

Weather Discussion ( Chilly Pattern )

Frosty cold conditions were developing in mountain valleys late Friday night into the early hours of Saturday as a chilly pattern continues for this time of year.

Mid-Spring Snow In High Knob Massif – April 16, 2018

Although large temperature swings have occurred during the past week, the general pattern continues to be cooler than average for mid-spring.

European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 1-5

Upcoming days will continue to feature near to below average conditions through the end of April, with a trend on the European Ensembles toward cooler conditions in the final days of this month ( it would not be impossible that more April snowflakes fly, at least at  high elevations ).

European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 6-10
Coolest conditions in the next few days will occur along the eastern slopes of the Appalachian chain, on SE flow, before a shift back to the western side of the Appalachians occurs with a return of westerly to northwesterly flow.  This period will also feature periods of rain and showers.
GFS Ensemble Mean Total Precipitation Forecast – Next 10 Days