*Seasonally cold weather will dominate conditions during Thanksgiving Week across the mountains.
*Rain showers Monday night will give way to snow showers & flurries into Tuesday as air turns colder.
*Although only light snow amounts are expected, I do expect sticking at high elevations and another period with significant rime formation Tuesday (via moisture capture by trees) into early Wednesday within upper elevations, above 3000 feet, in the High Knob Massif.
Rime Covered Northern Slopes of High Knob Massif – November 14, 2018
*The potential for major storm development is being monitored for the final days of November into early December. Stay tuned for later updates.
Mountain Area Forecast ( Nov 18-21 )
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy (mid-high clouds). SSW-WSW winds at 5-15 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from lower 30s to the lower 40s, except locally colder within sheltered mountain valleys. Wind chills generally in the 30s, except 20s in gusts on highest peaks.
Monday Afternoon
Increasing and lowering clouds with a chance of rain showers, especially by late. Winds S-SW at 10-20 mph with higher gusts ( winds may gust over 30 mph along the higher mountain ridges ). Temperatures varying from 40s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 50s in downslope locations of northern Wise and Dickenson counties. Wind chills in the 30s to lower 40s at higher elevations.
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
Rain showers developing. Turning colder. Rain showers will change to snow showers at high elevations by morning. Winds SSW-SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts on mountain ridges and plateaus below 2700 feet. Winds SW-W at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 ft. Winds shifting WNW-NW by morning. Clouds lowering to obscure higher mountain ridges. Temperatures falling into the 30s to around 40 degrees, except to around 30 degrees on highest peaks, by morning. Wind chills in the 20s & 30s, except dropping into 10s on high peaks by morning.
Tuesday Morning Through The Afternoon
Low clouds & cold. A chance of drizzle, flurries, and snow showers. Orographic clouds with dense fog-riming at high elevations. Winds WNW-NW at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts. Temperatures nearly steady to slowly falling in the 30s at lower-middle elevations along and west to north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide, and into 20s at upper elevations. Wind chill factors in 20s to around 30 degrees, except 10s to lower 20s at high elevations.
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Mostly cloudy & cold. Winds W-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Riming continuing at high elevations. Temps dropping into the 20s to around 30 degrees, except around 20 F at high elevations. Wind chills in the 10s & 20s along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges, with single digits on highest mountain ridges and peaks.
Holiday Season Discussion
This week marks the official beginning of the holiday season, with a passing early week front expected to turn conditions colder prior to Thanksgiving day…but nothing like appears to be upcoming to close out November 2018.
Looking From High Country of Rime Covered Big Cherry Lake Basin
This chilly trend shows up on the 5-day mean charts from the European Model and its 51-member ensemble group; although, some moderation follows briefly the extended trend is looking to turn sharply colder.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 1-5
November 20-22 will be the coolest days in this period, especially Tuesday into Wednesday ( November 20-21 ), leading up to Thanksgiving day.
Brief moderation is then looking to be followed by an active pattern which turns sharply colder during the final days of November into early December ( to emphasize this again ).
European Model 850 MB Temperature Anomalies Forecast: Days 1-5
Some late week-weekend moderation is currently expected ahead of what looks to be an interesting period to finish out November and open December 2018 ( are you beginning to sense that I am trying to shift your focus toward the week after Thanksgiving ).
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 6-10
Ridging across Greenland is expected to aid increasingly negative AO and NAO teleconnections, which with a trend toward an increasingly +PNA after November 24 will act to bring wintry conditions into the mountain region. If the EPO also trends negative, as currently suggested, that will up the ante for some serious winter weather.
