080419 Forecast

UVA-Wise Weather Research Webcam_August 2, 2019

Although a shower or downpour in a thunderstorm can not be ruled out during the next few days, the main threat for heavy to excessive rainfall will be most likely to return by the middle to end of this week (August 7-9) with a cold frontal boundary.

European Model 500 MB Height Anomalies Forecast_August 3-8, 2019

Greenland Blocking will continue to be a notable feature of Northern Hemisphere weather though the upcoming week to ten days, with general troughing across the eastern United States. Temperatures will be near to somewhat above average. Small chances for showers and thunderstorms early this week will increase during mid-late week when the potential for locally heavy to excessive rainfall amounts will return to the mountain landscape.

European Model 500 MB Height Anomalies Forecast_August 8-13, 2019

A super-wet summer in the high country of the High Knob Massif has generated more than 22.00″ of rainfall during the June 1 to August 2 period of 2019 (22.60″ at Big Cherry Dam).

Wet Summer of 2019_High Knob Massif

Monthly Total Precipitation
Big Cherry Lake Dam

(Elevation 3139 feet)

January
6.14″

February
12.50″

March
5.93″

April
6.64″

May
6.75″

June
10.68″

July
10.77″

August 1-2
1.15″

Summer 2019
(Jun 1-Aug 2)
22.60″

*2019 Total: 60.56″ (M)
(January 1 to August 2 Period)

12-Month Total: 91.85″ (M)

(M): Some missing moisture in undercatch and frozen precipitation, with partial corrections applied for the 24.4 meter (80 feet) tall dam structure where rain gauges are located.