032720 Forecast

Weather Headlines

*A weakening line of strong-severe thunderstorms across Kentucky & Tennessee will approach the mountains late Saturday into early hours of Sunday.

Severe Risk Regions_8 AM Saturday to 8 AM Sunday_28-29 March 2020

*Strong and gusty SSW-WSW winds Saturday night into Sunday will shift W-WNW with cooler air by late Sunday into Monday.

*Rain overspreads the mountain region during 31 March into 1 April (Tuesday-Wednesday) as air turns sharply colder (rain may end as snow at high elevations).

Colder Pattern Opens April 2020

Ensemble Mean_500 MB Height Anomaly Forecast_28 March-2 April 2020

A colder pattern will open April 2020 across the eastern USA as a negative North Atlantic Oscillation is joined by a negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation.

Observed North Atlantic Oscillation Since Late November 2019

Note that this is opposite to these observed teleconnections during Winter 2019-20.

Observed Eastern Pacific Oscillation Since Late November 2019

Cold weather across the eastern USA is favored during negative phases of the NAO & EPO oscillation patterns versus mild conditions during their positive phases.

Ensemble Mean_500 MB Height Anomaly Forecast_1-6 April 2020

Negative phases of the NAO and EPO should result in colder air during early April (in the mean).

GFS Model_Ensemble Mean_850 MB Temp Anomaly Forecast_1-8 April 2020

As noted above, this would be nearly opposite to the observed winter pattern (below). The difference, with increasing sun angles-insolation and limited snow and ice coverage, air temperatures will be much below the average for this time of year but well above what they would have been during the same pattern in winter.

Observed 850 MB Temp Anomaly_December-February 2019-20